HURRICANE DISCUSSION REGARDING ULTRA LONG RANGE MODELS
HURRICANE DISCUSSION REGARDING ULTRA LONG RANGE MODELS
HURRICANE DISCUSSION REGARDING ULTRA LONG RANGE MODELS – Good morning everyone! Before I get into the nitty gritty, we have another very warm and soupy day brewing, with morning heavy showers and storms concentrated now on the north shores of Queens and Long Island. We’ll have another warm and very humid one tomorrow and an approaching front will give us our best shot at some more widespread showers and storms, especially in the morning to late afternoon. The biggest threat as of now will be frequent lightning and heavy rain. However, some areas could see very localized and brief moments of severe storm conditions. You can check out my latest forecast for the upcoming 7 days here, as I’m confident it holds up very well.
I’ve been getting flooded with questions the last 24hrs in regards to the GFS long range models putting a rather nasty Hurricane in close proximity to the east coast between the 12th and 17th of August. While this is a plausible situation, it’s too far out to make any type of call like that whatsoever.
Here is what we know at this very moment –
- We have an impressive tropical wave off of Africa
- Conditions are starting to relax in terms of more favorable conditions for waves to flourish
- This is the time of year we start watching for Cape Verde sourced storms
Beyond these three things, there is not much else going on. We have no storm yet, it’s so far out, and any minor shift in positioning/timing of a frontal system or high pressure system can completely change the entire outcome. It’s called the Butterfly Effect; and for those who like trivia and factoids, the Butterfly Effect was actually first used to describe weather models before it was used in Sci-Fi movies and discussions about time travel.
So what do we have? As with any strong Cape Verde wave this time of year, it bears close watching. If anything were to develop and steering currents were to bring it close to the United States, my initial concern would be the deep south. I’ve discussed this for two months now, in which high pressure systems in theory would be suppressing the action far south and/or across Flroida and into the Gulf. We could also have an old front pick it up and hook it out to sea before it even gets close here.
This is why it’s too early to make any calls for something that doesn’t exist yet. Just know that we will be keeping a close eye on the tropics from this moment onward. Not just because of any far-fetched model, but because this is the time of season everything needs to start being watched. Any old front draped across the Gulf/Atlantic and any robust wave in the Caribbean or Atlantic, needs to be watched.
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