HURRICANE MATTHEW LATEST, DREARY WEATHER BREAKING IN NYC

HURRICANE MATTHEW LATEST, DREARY WEATHER BREAKING IN NYC

HURRICANE MATTHEW LATEST, DREARY WEATHER BREAKING IN NYC

Hurricane Matthew has weakened ever-so-slightly, but is still a very powerful [major] category 4 hurricane. It has its eye (no pun intended) on Jamaica, Haiti, and then Cuba. The storm is moving slowly to the west at only 3 mph, packing max sustained winds of 140 mph. The latest NHC track shows some mercy to Jamaica, with the expected track shifting slightly to the east. This is not good news for Haiti, with a direct hit increasingly likely for its lower peninsula. Hurricane warnings are up for all of these countries.

HURRICANE MATTHEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST

The EURO had a fairly similar solution as early as Friday, with the storm almost perfectly navigating the straights between Jamaica/Haiti/CubaRegardless of a direct hit or not, these locations will not be spared of the storms effects. There is likely to be a bit of weakening due to increased wind shear and Matthew eventually moving over Cuba. Keep in mind however that the waters are very warm in the Bahamas and restrengthening is certainly possible. The NHC predicts a weakening into a Cat. 2 storm but then has Matthew regaining its ‘major’ status in the Bahamas. Much uncertainty still exists from that point onward.

The EURO has always had the slowest and furthest east solution, good news for the east coast. However, there has been a slight shift to the west this morning, bringing it closer to the southeast states. The slower movement actually coincides with a weaker and slower trough moving across Canada and the US, which will play a role in what Matthew ultimately does. It does finally begin to turn out to sea with a nudge from that trough, but Matthew then wants to make another hook back to the west due to a blocking high over Newfoundland, which would threaten New England. Again, this is the slowest of the solutions, and the speed of the storm will make all the difference in its interaction with these other atmospheric players. The slower solution also means this would not be near the northeast until the middle of the following week.

The faster solution of the GFS continues to bring it nearby next weekend, but with a positive trend. The latest 12z run shows some interaction with that trough, but unlike the 0z GFS (statistically speaking a weaker model run), it shows a much bigger turn out to sea. This may be due to a departing blocking high over the Canadian maritimes. The interaction with the trough would still bring it back west, but too late at that point. Keep in mind the 0z had Matthew riding up the coast and pummeling much of it. Again, timing of the storm will decide everything.

Shifting our attention back home, we continue to see dreary conditions thanks to a cutoff low over the eastern third of the country. The past several days have been cloudy, damp, cool, and breezy, and the first half of Sunday will be no exception. The good news is that this low is continuing to weaken and spin itself out. Any shower activity from this point onward will be light and passing. By later today, we may even see a few breaks of sun. Monday and Tuesday will feature further brightening conditions and milder temperatures, before we eventually return to an on shore flow later in the week. At that point, the weather could ultimately be decided by what Matthew chooses to do. Stay tuned with us throughout the coming week. -GB

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK VIDEOS

In case you missed them I’ve been previewing the upcoming winter in a series of posts and videos. Here are the first 2. More will be coming along. Links to the latest posts are below.

NEW JERSEY