IRMA MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLE
IRMA MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLE
IRMA MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLE – Good morning everyone and happy Labor Day! Before I jump into the continuing update of Hurricane Irma, I’m going to briefly cover our local weather here in the New York City area.
Today, we have a beautiful, warm day unfolding as Labor Day should be in order to properly say goodbye to the summer season and life goes into “fall-mode”. We’ll have highs in the low 80’s today, then increasing clouds, increasing humidity, and highs in the mid 80’s tomorrow with an approaching front. There will be a slight chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon as the cold front passes, but then a wave may form along the front as it slows down, giving us a rainy Tuesday night and cloudy, rainy, and cool Wednesday; highs in the mid 70’s.
Things cool off further on Thursday and stubborn clouds will be slow to clear, highs in the low 70’s. Then, drier air moves in for Friday, with sunny skies and low 70’s; setting the scene for the battle with Irma and what she may do.
Models continue to evolve with Hurricane Irma and they will continue to do so. Expect more changes down the line since Irma is still not even at the Leeward Islands. At this very moment, the models show a strong push of dry air into the Northeast/Ohio Valley, possibly suppressing the storm further south. While this is a possibility, I’m still leaving all options on the table since we have a long way to go and most show a northerly turn at some point.
Some runs still take it into the Chesapeake, some into the Southeast, some across a horrible path with a turn north, cutting Florida up the middle like a hotdog bun, and a few runs into the Gulf. I’ve stressed this before, it’s too far out to make a solid call or deem anyone in the clear officially; to do so would be irresponsible. We will continue to watch as things change over the course of time. Remember, whether you’re tuning in from up here, or a resident down the coast or the Gulf, you need to be watching this closely. We would rather be sure and steady, than the “first ones” to make the call. There is no prize in this business when lives/livelihoods are at stake.
If things continue to progress towards a southerly track, the out to sea option is going to fade away completely and soon. We don’t wish harm on anyone, but on a Meteorological standpoint, at that juncture you’d want to hope it fully interacts with the higher elevations of the Caribbean Islands and Cuba in order to shred it apart and weaken it to the point that she will do minimal damage when/if that northerly turn occurs.
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