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NATIONAL OUTLETS DRIFT TOWARDS MUCH COLDER NYC SOLUTION
Good morning everyone. If you’re waking up now and look to your west, clouds are on the horizon, representing a return to seasonably cold air after a “mild” day today. In the mean time, we continue to watch for an arctic airmass marching our way, but not before a round of rain and possibly some snow.
EASTERN SATELLITE
Sun will mix with clouds today as we go on. We’ll climb into the low to mid 40’s ahead of our weak front, but wind chills will kill any celebration since winds are going to pick up to fairly stiff and gusty pace. Winds will calm down overnight and we’ll drop into the chilly mid to upper 20’s, then a “normal” day is on tap tomorrow.
We should get some full sun tomorrow for at least the majority of the day before clouds begin to creep in. Any westerlies left will switch to the north, then east as the day goes on, signaling the approach of yet another system and our arctic blast. Highs tomorrow in the low to mid 30’s.
REGIONAL RADAR
Tuesday remains tricky as far as precip and timing. Depending on the arrival of moisture, we may see a few cheap flakes before everything turns to rain and we rise into the upper 30’s to low 40’s. I still see nothing that impresses me on the front end, but we still have to see if there’s any moisture left as this front passes and very cold air rushes in.
Generally when I see models depicting abrupt, west to east changeovers from rain to snow associated with cold fronts, I take things with a grain of salt. Many times, these changeovers are very brief or don’t happen at all. This may be one of those things we have to watch unfold and see how the setup plays out, but I don’t think as of this moment we amount to much if anything at all. The biggest issue could be icing on roads early Wednesday morning as any moisture left on the ground, freezes.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The big story remains very cold to bitter cold air coming in; starting our transition Wednesday, then full bore on Thursday. For Wednesday, I see us hitting our high temp early and in the low to mid 20’s, then sinking fast as we go on, especially after sunset. Winds won’t help the situation either and we’ll easily drop into the single digit realm for wind chills.
Overnight Wednesday, those single digit wind chills will become our actual temperatures as we plunge into the low to mid single digits for lows. Areas N&W of the NYC area may see some negative numbers, as well as the Pine Barrens of Long Island and other notoriously colder parts of Long Island.
It remains to be seen how we recover on Thursday. Many times when we do dip this low, it’s hard to recover much. National outlets have been drifting my way as far as how strong this airmass may be, and I still believe we remain bitter cold for Thursday. As of now, if I had to put a number on it, I’d say we recover into the 10-15 range give or take; but don’t be shocked if we don’t recover to 10 in spots. Regardless of what happens on Thursday and another bitter cold night on Thursday night, we do begin to modify Friday and into next weekend.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
In the long range, I do believe we have a few more opportunities for some below average cold air, but our system path remains hostile towards any big snows for the NYC metro area. We’re going to need a big one to make up the deficit if we’re going to try for at least a normal year snowfall-wise.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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