NYC Afternoon Update Northeast Severe Weather Threat

NYC Afternoon Update Northeast Severe Weather Threat

Good afternoon everyone. Our warm front just to our west continues to touch off a few scattered showers in the area, as well as keeping the blanket of clouds around. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are starting to fire up in Western NY and PA, which will be the big story come late afternoon/evening in parts of the Tri-State area.


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For the meantime, we’ll have more clouds than sun until that warm front passes by. Then, we’ll get into some puffy cloud action, warmer temps, and higher humidity. We can have a shower at any point during the day and highs should be in the low to mid 70’s, cooler at the shore.

Areas of Concern

While storms are firing up now, and severe storm watches are up for parts of Western NY and PA, our main concern for this afternoon and evening, are in the areas circled above. They overlap a bit, taking into consideration some spots may see two rounds and/or depending on where the lines/individual cells organize. In these areas, we have a fairly good shot at seeing localized reports of severe weather; with the biggest risk consisting of damaging winds and hail. This time of year and given the amount of energy available, we could also see an isolated tornado.

For us in the NYC Metro Area, there is still a risk of severe weather, but it is diminished compared to areas north and to our west. Our warm front hanging back is helping us a little bit by keeping the air a little bit more stable and the marine layer close at hand. As with any line of storms, we’ll have to wait and see how well they organize, how fast they’re moving, and if they can hold together as they get close to the NYC area. Between 5-11pm is when we should keep an eye on the radar for thunderstorms lurking around.


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Tomorrow we clear out and drop the humidity for a seasonal and breezy day. Highs in most spots will be in the 70-75 realm for a comfortable day. For Saturday, we keep the sunshine around and dial back the wind a bit. 70-75 is also a good bet, but maybe slightly cooler at the immediate shore with a southerly fetch developing.

We remain looking lucky for Sunday, with showers and storms passing through Saturday late night. This round could get hefty and we’ll keep an eye on it, but they should be gone by Sunday; giving us clearing skies, sun and clouds, and a warm day with highs 80-85 for now. Some extra sun might get some spots beyond 85.

We cloud up again Sunday night, and we could have a few showers lurking. For the moment, I’m going to call for a slight chance of morning showers on Memorial Day Monday, then gradual clearing, highs 75-80. Overall, I think we walk through this holiday weekend pretty unscathed, with a rare 4 nice days in a row between nocturnal/early morning raindrops.


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In the long range we’re still looking pretty good, with lots of 70’s and lower 80’s in between raindrops; but we look to have more dry days than wet ones at this point as we pivot towards late spring.

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Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.