NYC AREA SNOW EVENT EVOLVING – Good morning everyone and surprise! Parts just east of the NYC area have gone from no advisories to Winter Storm Warnings. Things continue to evolve and we get a better picture as the radar develops and the final path becoming clear. I said this forecast had the potential to blow up in my face due to the sharp cutoff of snow and any deviation by 15-25 miles, and this looks to be the case somewhat. Snow will overspread the area later this morning and into early afternoon. Highs only in the low to mid 20’s, so everything will stick, there is no question about that. Snow will be with us till late evening, then leaving behind cold and blustery weather. Lows in the mid teens tonight and mid 20’s tomorrow with gusty winds.

New York City is still on the fringe of this system. However, due to the lower temperatures and heavier snow being able to make it to the fringe of this system due to a higher liquid:frozen ratio, we will be able to squeeze out more snow in the area to the tune of 2-5″ instead of the original coating to 2″ expected. For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been put up for the area. Events like this, where the cold air is trying to fight an approaching system, sometimes end up with last minute surprises when the system deepens a little more than expected and it can wedge itself a little further in.

NYC AREA SNOW EVENT EVOLVES – Low Pressure will move slightly closer to the area than originally expected, throwing snow into the area, but a strong cutoff of precip remains. What it’s doing is throwing heavier snow to that edge. Don’t be surprised if Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories get upgraded one more notch to Blizzard Warnings briefly. Just remember, Blizzard Warnings do not mean total accumulation, it’s a combination of intensity of snow, temperature, and wind. Right now we have the snow and temperature, all we need is the wind.

NYC SNOW EVENT EVOLVES – Here is the snowfall potential map from the National Weather Service and I am in agreement with it about 75%. I still think the western edge of snow with it’s sharp cutoff, has the potential for lower amounts, but Long Island seems to be right on point. Unlike your “typical” snow setups, the Forks of Long Island will see the most, and North and West of NYC will hardly see anything. Don’t be surprised if the Forks get some localized higher amounts of 12″+, but 2-5″ in the NYC area seems to be the consensus.



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Satellite depicts a moisture-laden storm heading our way from the Carolinas and Virginia. Snow will start this morning and be with us till late evening.

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Now is entering Central NJ and will be with us in due time. Expect the intensity to pick up by early afternoon.

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