NYC Controversial Long Range Outlook Trigger Warning

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NYC Controversial Long Range Outlook Trigger Warning

Good morning everyone. Since we have a fairly quiet week ahead, we’re going to delve into the long range, and you may not like what I have to say. Briefly, we’ll talk about the “now”, and we have some serious black ice issues this morning with our flash freeze overnight last night.

SATELLITE

For those waking up this morning, temps in the upper teens to low 20’s have froze everything solid. Anything wet is ice right now aside from heavily treated roads. With temps not breaking the upper 20’s today, use extreme caution because melting is unlikely aside from dark surfaces able to absorb some sunlight. It’ll be a breezy one today with stiff NW winds, then we drop into the low to mid teens overnight tonight.

Things modify tomorrow slightly as we get near freezing. We’ll have sunshine and low 30’s, then upper 20’s overnight as clouds increase.

WEATHER RADAR

A system will scoot by Monday/Monday night, sending clouds our way and the slight chance of some light rain, light mix, and/or some light snow. Little to no accumulation is expected, and we’ll be near 40 on Monday. Near 40 temps continue on Tuesday, then mid 40’s possible midweek, onward.

Long Range Discussion

Now to discuss the long range which I know I’ll get a lot of flak for, but I don’t care. We’re strictly talking mathematics and chance here, nothing else. We’re having a fairly quiet week this week with no big systems or major cold, yes? Yes. Ok, that’s 1 week down in February with nothing major going on.

The following week, we have a few weak disturbances fortifying the cold air. We could see a few snowflakes or showers, and we’ll be back into some colder temps/breezy conditions. That’s another week down in February with nothing major going on.

Beyond that, things get blurry because a long range can’t predict specific systems that far out. However, we can look at patterns and hints to see what MAY lie ahead. What we do see is the possibility of a pattern change that could redirect low pressure into the Great Lakes region. This is a typical early March pattern, where the upper midwest starts seeing their big snows. It would also mean a rainier pattern for the East Coast, with cold air behind each system.

Back to mathematics and chance, if we have a setup like this in mid-February (with February being a short month), what do you think it does to our area? Let’s pretend for a minute that the graphic above is accurate, and we have this monster system in mid-February. Obviously, this would be a rain-maker for much of the Northeast, but it does something else. A mid-February setup like this, gives us a rainy day with very cold air behind it, but typically no systems are behind these for several days, sometimes even longer.

That puts us into late February/early March with no major snow. Statistically, our snow chances begin to dwindle March 1st, onward. Yes I know, the Blizzard of 1888 and countless other examples of big snow. I’m not interested in the April 1982 snowstorm or when frogs fell from the sky in Egypt 1446bc. We are strictly talking chance here. A system of this magnitude in mid-February could be a “winter killer” that interrupts our 2nd most historically active period of snow for the NYC area, mid to late February.

Will it still be cold? Yes. Can we still get snow? Yes. Can we still get a snow weenie wet dream in the form of a late season anomaly? Yes, but for snow lovers, this could be a the first nail in the coffin for our winter season big snowfall chances overall.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.