NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK – Welcome everybody to Angry Ben’s long range outlook for NYC and it is definitely looking a little angry down the road. First, let’s go over the immediate forecast and what we should expect later tonight and this week. Tonight, a piece of the system hanging back in southwest Gulf area will head our way in a generally weak fashion. Expect clouds to continue to increase, with a chance of a cold light rain a few hours before sunrise. Being that there is some cold air in place, we could see a mix with some wet flakes, before changing back to all rain after sunrise. Any mix of wet flakes at this point, will probably only occur if we can get some heavier precip into the area, helping cool off the mid/lower layers of the atmosphere; lows tonight will be in the upper 30’s, so don’t expect any accumulation at all. By sunrise, any mixing that does occur will undoubtedly change to all rain, making the morning rush hour more of a nuisance than anything else. No flooding is expected due to the light nature of the rain. Any rain will be gone by late morning/early afternoon and partial clearing will give way to some peeks of sun, highs near 50. Tomorrow night will be cool and breezy, partly cloudy skies, lows in the mid to upper 30’s.
On Tuesday through Thursday, the system in the Gulf right now will make its way up here in piece-meal. Clouds will increase Tuesday, with with a chance of a cold light rain Tuesday afternoon, highs in the low 40’s. On Tuesday night, the chance of steadier rain will increase, lows near 40, with a cold and damp east wind. Expect a repeat performance on Wednesday, with cloudy skies, a chance of some scattered light rain, and highs in the low to upper 40’s. More of the same for Wednesday night, then the main batch of energy reaches the area by Thursday, with an increased chance of some steady rain during the day and night. Highs Thursday will reach the upper 40’s, but will drop Thursday night as cold air spools up behind the system, giving us a chance of light rain turning into scattered flurries. Friday will be our coldest day yet, with the chance of some flurries around most of the morning and highs only reaching the upper 30’s and breezy conditions. Friday night will be cold, with lows in the upper 20’s. More of the same for Saturday and Sunday, with sunny skies, but it won’t help much, with highs only reaching the upper 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s. Bundle up next weekend if you plan on hitting the town at night to see the Christmas Tree at Rockefeller Center, as temps will be below freezing and frostbite could occur if not dressed properly.
NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK – For the long range beyond next weekend, temps took to remain unseasonably cool into the beginning of the following week, with highs in the low to mid 40’s. There will be a progression of systems similar to what we see now, some being strong, some being very weak. With each passing, colder air seems to be setting up for a big invasion into the area and much of the nation. Temps look to rebound a little bit, especially if the path of a system around 10 days from now (+/- 1 day), goes north and west of the area. This could give us a day or two of warmer air, but it’ll probably come at the cost of more rain if this scenario happens. However, behind it is a reinforcing shot of cold air, as another system may get it’s act together for the beginning of the week of the 19th, giving us yet another reinforcing shot of even colder air. Essentially, what we’re seeing is the process of fall becoming winter, with each system passing giving us longer periods of colder air.
NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK – GFS models here showing the potential for a powerful system the week of the 19th. Whether this scenario does play out or not, will not be revealed until we get closer. That being said, it clearly shows the pattern of reinforcing shot after shot of colder air with each system, which will undoubtedly happen. As far as any chance of snow, this will all depend on final storm paths, but the cold air will definitely be in place and willing to take part if the path is there.
NYC LONG RANGE OUTLOOK – Satellite shows our system stretched thin but moving our way. Our first taste will be late tonight into tomorrow morning, then late Tuesday into Thursday. Cold air will flow in behind it.
Northeast radar shows steady precip to our southwest and light echoes across western Pennsylvania.
As of 5pm Today, things are quiet and will remain quiet until very late tonight, with some scattered light rain, possibly mixed with some wet flakes.
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