NYC SNOW MIX RAIN TRANSITION REMAINS LIKELY TUESDAY

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NYC SNOW MIX RAIN TRANSITION REMAINS LIKELY TUESDAY

Good morning everyone. We have a seasonably cold and windy one unfolding here in the New York City area to remind us that it’s still winter. In other news, we have the slight chance of a dusting or so of snow overnight tomorrow, and that much larger system is all set to go late overnight Monday into Tuesday.

EASTERN SATELLITE

Clear skies, strong gusty winds, and low to mid 30’s are on the menu today. Overnight, we’ll dip into the chilly upper teens to low 20’s.

For your Sunday, we’ll start off sunny, then increase the clouds as the day wears on. Winds will calm down drastically and it’ll be much more comfortable; highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Light snow may brush the area overnight tomorrow, with the better of the slight chance along the southern areas of New York City and the south shore of Nassau as a weak disturbance slips to the south of us. If we do get anything at all, it’ll be light and brief in nature, with amounts around a dusting or so.

REGIONAL RADAR

For Monday, I’m keeping the clouds in the area as we transition from the smaller piece of energy to the much larger system; highs in the upper 30’s to near 40. Overnight, we dip down into the mid to upper 20’s, which is an important factor for any approaching moisture.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

As of now, it looks as if snow arrives late overnight Monday, then at some point Tuesday, begins to mix with sleet, then mix with rain, before turning to all rain. NAM models are being bullish on the sleet and freezing rain before turning things to all rain in NYC, while the GFS has your staple and steady snow to mix to rain transition over the course of 6-10hrs.

For me, I still think we have time and keeping all options on the table as far as duration of each layer. In my opinion and looking at it on Saturday for Tuesday, it’s just as possible we have a very brief period of snow/mix to rain, as we do an extended one. I know that may not be what people want to hear and they want results now, but predicting overrunning precip and stubborn cold air is very tricky. 70-80% of the time, there’s a surprise that can go either way. As far as snow amounts, I’m holding off for the moment.

Regardless, any frozen precip gets washed away as we rise into the mid to upper 30’s and turn everything to rain, then clouds and sun Wednesday with mid 40’s; so there will be no issues with icing, digging, or chipping out of this system as everything melts very fast.

LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA

In the long range, I see nothing that excites me as far as any all-out snowstorms and we may have to look to a March Monster to “fix” things if nothing pops up soon.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

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