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GFS Weather Models Holds Onto NYC Snow Idea
01/07/25 11:19am EST
Good morning everyone. We have very cold air across a wide range of real estate, ranging from the Upper Plains down into Texas, across the Southeast and up the East Coast into New England. This will help set the stage for our next powerful storm system, which will also include a reinforcing blast of arctic air.
We’ve been watching this process play out over the past couple of weeks, and the timeline and accuracy of bitter cold air and storm systems have been excellent. Now we watch for the 2nd phase of this very cold and snowy January, and we’ll see where it takes us.
Up in the batter’s box is low pressure that’ll dive down from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies, then hook up in the Texas and/or Oklahoma region with energy coming out of Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. This will help re-energize the system and bring heavy snow and ice across areas that typically don’t see it.
A deeper diving system, combined with cold air, will mean the possibility of heavy snow and ice across parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee; and even into upper Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. If there’s enough cold air locked in and our low pressure stays to the south, we could see heavy snow and ice into South Carolina and North Carolina. In terms of timing, we’re looking at Thursday through early Saturday morning from west to east.
Questions remain as far as what this means for the Northeast. However, we do think that the Mid-Atlantic is in store for some more snows across parts of Virginia, Delaware, and Maryland. In the Northeast, we’ll be watching closely for that final path and strength of our system. Our GFS and EURO weather models still differ, but I think at this point, areas of New Jersey and the NYC/LI area will see some light snow out of this at minimum.
On the other end of the spectrum, if low pressure intensifies and hits the “sweet spot”, New York City, Long Island, and the rest of the Tri-State area could see a major snowstorm with possible blizzard or blizzard-like conditions some time on Saturday/Saturday night.
Here is your local NYC Metro Forecast –
SATELLITE
We have a very cold and blustery day on tap today, with windy conditions and highs 25-30. Look for similar conditions both tomorrow and Thursday as arctic air is locked in. Expect low to mid 20’s overnight as wind keeps the radiational cooling at a minimum.
WEATHER RADAR
Friday is the “best” day of the week and could be the “calm before the storm”. We’ll have sunshine and 35-40 degree temps. Colder air begins to lock in Friday night ahead of that system, with lows in the mid to upper 20’s and increasing clouds.
It’ll be a cloudy and cold day on Saturday, with light snow likely at this point and highs in the low 30’s. Be aware that this could change in either direction as we see what this storm system does & where it goes. Look for clearing skies and windy conditions Sunday, with highs ranging from the 20’s to 30’s depending on what that system does and how much snow it drops (if any).
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.