Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Biggest Florida Concern
Good early morning everyone. Hurricane Dorian is now beginning to grind to a halt as steering mechanisms to help change direction, start to influence it. This means absolutely devastating conditions will continue for Grand Bahama island will continue as Dorian just sits over it. When this is all over for Florida, the biggest story will be what Dorian’s storm surge did to parts of its east coast. Meanwhile, other areas of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast watch and listen to see how Dorian will affect their region.
SATELLITE
For the last day of our holiday weekend, winds off of the water, combined with an approaching front, will bring showers and the chance of a few rumbles this afternoon. It won’t be much of a beach day or afternoon BBQ day, but you’re also not being raked by 200mph winds and a 20ft storm surge, so be thankful for that. Highs today in the mid to upper 70’s and humid.
REGIONAL RADAR
Tomorrow is looking gorgeous here in the NYC area, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 80’s. Light northerlies will help keep us warm and dry, but the humidity will start creeping up as we get into nighttime.
With another front approaching, we’ll have very warm and humid air in front of it. Expect sun and clouds Wednesday, mid to upper 80’s, and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms. A few rumbles could be heavy, especially since tropical air is being pumped into the region.
While Dorian will still be well south of the area on Thursday, we’ll be watching everything closely as it begins to influence our weather overnight Thursday and possibly into some time on Saturday; in which I discuss below.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Hurricane Dorian is now being influenced by the steering mechanisms that’ll begin to turn it on a more northwesterly track, then eventually NNW/N. This means it has slowed down considerably and almost to a halt. Because of this, the effects on Grand Bahama and Marsh Island are utterly catastrophic. There is no other way to describe what’s going on there, as these low elevation locales just sit in prolonged Midwest tornado-like winds for hours and hours, with a 15-20 storm surge and massive waves piled on top of that. Don’t expect there to be much left unless it’s made of concrete and steel.
In the meantime, Florida braces for Dorian’s impact once he begins to start moving again. Come today, the east coast of Florida will already see some influence, with gusty outer-bands and the storm surge starting to reach the area. Expect tides to be enhanced and flooding to begin today, then get worse as time goes on as that column of water inches closer.
Tropical storm warnings remain posted for essentially Boca to just north of West Palm, then Hurricane Warnings northward into the Cape Canaveral area. Up and down this area, storm surge warnings are posted. Some coastal areas could see 4-7+ feet of inundation, that’s 4-7+ feet of water above ground. For those at the immediate shore, there will be waves on top of that 4-7 feet of water. This is a life threatening situation and when that column of water hits, it comes in fast. If you haven’t already, and if you live in an area where there is a storm surge warning, the time to leave is now.
Secondary to surge, will be the strong winds as Hurricane Dorian edges the coast. A dip in either direction could reduce wind OR greatly increase it, and these storms tend to wobble along their path; especially when they begin to be influenced by the mechanisms that’ll decide its final destination. Expect long duration of tropical storm force and hurricane force wind gusts, and/or hurricane force sustained winds with higher gusts.
As Dorian begins to move, areas such as northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina need to take note. Now is the time to prepare and or get out while its easy. Cities such as St Augustine, island such as St Simon, GA, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, and the Outer Banks, all need to begin doing what they need to do in order to be fully prepared to take action. Take advantage of Dorian’s slow speed and use that time to get ready.
For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, our time frame will be Thursday-Sat from south to north. For us here in the NYC and Long Island area, we could see tropical storm conditions out of this as Dorian passes to our south as a category 1-2 hurricane or a borderline post-tropical-like system with an expanded wind field. We’ll have to wait and see on this, but it’ll be no Sandy or Irene and more like a Nor’easter.
Areas such as the Forks of Long Island could see a greater influence from Dorian, and depending on how close it gets, Cape Cod could see a pretty decent hit from this. Again, for it to get any closer than we’re forecasting, it’ll have to spend more time over land as it would have to go more inland. This would weaken the storm even more, although it would give us a lot more rain.
Let’s focus on the task and hand while not getting ahead of ourselves. First up is Florida, and folks down there, especially along the immediate coast, need to take action right now.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.