NYC Big Changes Ahead Late Week Unseasonably Cold Blast

NYC Big Changes Ahead Late Week Unseasonably Cold Blast

Good morning everyone and happy Sunday! We have lots going on during this quiet and cool stretch as we keep an eye on a cold airmass looking to come in late week and into next weekend. This one has the chance to give us a winter feel in early November, plus we’ll be keep an eye on a system that may skirt a little too close for comfort.


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Sunny skies and seasonably cool temps rule again today, with westerlies increasing slightly as high pressure makes its way here. I wouldn’t call it windy or even breezy at this point, but we could see a steady 8-12mph cool flow. Highs today will be in the low to mid 50’s, approximately 3-6 degrees below average. Not a big deal, but cool nonetheless.


storm free

Tomorrow we repeat with the cool air and we’ll have a sunny start, then some clouds roll in late. Highs tomorrow again in the low to mid 50’s. Westerlies will go calm, then get into a more southerly flow with our next small system approaching.

Those clouds and wind shift represent a reinforcing shot of seasonably cool air coming in. Look for more clouds than sun on Tuesday with the slight chance of showers. Highs should make it to near 60 depending on how much sun we can squeeze in and if we see any showers or not. On Wednesday, that cool air is back and we should see sunny skies and a steady breeze. Highs will be in the low to mid 50’s again.

Thursday represents our transition day with a more significant system coming our way. Most of the energy will go well north of us, so I don’t think we squeeze much rain out of this. Regardless, much colder air lurks behind it, and highs in the 55-60 range, will be replaced with lows in the 30-35 range for NYC overnight Thursday.


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Expect blustery and unseasonably cold conditions on Friday with that cold airmass heading in. Highs will only make it into the low to mid 40’s, which is big 12-17 degree departure from average. Lows will surely drop into the 20’s for most of the area, maybe even NYC with it’s first taste of 20’s possible this season. Most areas overnight will see its first widespread freeze, especially most of Long Island.

We’ll also be watching a system very closely, where signs are gathering that a rather potent system will be down in the SE region. If things time out right, it’ll slip to our south and give the SE a big story. Timed with cold air coming in and deep into the region, the SE could see some snow before we do, which  would be considered very early in the season for them.

If it edges further north, we could be brushed with clouds, cold sprinkles, or even some flurries. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though and approach it the way we always do, slow and methodical. I’d rather be right than first, so we’ll keep an eye on the timing of Thursday’s system, the cold air, and what happens down south.

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In the long range, we are not close to being done with the unseasonably cold air. An active pattern and colder pattern is on the horizon. If these strong systems continue to head NW of us, we’ll see a mild shot ahead of it, replaced with 40’s, or maybe even 30’s believe it or not. Our current pattern dictates this, with 60’s ahead of our systems, 40’s behind them, them a modification to near normal or slightly below normal, before a day or two of upper 50’s to 60’s return.

At a minimum, I see a decent handful of December-like days in the next 2-3 weeks. These are the Novembers I remember as a kid, with very mild air ahead of these systems, then downright cold for a couple of days behind it; rinse and repeat.


Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.