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NYC CHEAP THRILL CLOSE CALL
NYC CHEAP THRILL CLOSE CALL
NYC CHEAP THRILL CLOSE CALL – Good afternoon everyone. As I sit here on my deathbed with pneumonia, my dedication to bringing you the most accurate forecast possible continues. Cold air has arrived and temperatures have begun to fall with the help of a brisk west/northwest wind.
Temps have now slipped into the 40’s with a thin veil of mid to high clouds. Tonight, we’ll get down into the upper 20’s to low 30’s, possibly some low to mid 20’s on the outskirts of the New York City area. Tomorrow will be sunny and cool, highs in the low to mid 40’s. Then Friday will be in the upper 30’s to near 40 as the core of this cold shot begins to move overhead.
We continue to keep an eye on a complicated scenario for Friday night into Saturday. Energy along the stalled front draped across the Gulf Coast will develop along it and head into the Southeast. What it does from there and what upper air energy does when it comes down from Canada, remains an enigma for now. At this moment, our latest GFS model has drier air winning out by a smidgen. This would make for a cloudy, cold, and raw Friday night and Saturday morning, but no snow except for maybe the extreme east end of Long Island and extreme southeast New England.
NAM Model has a different idea
As innocuos as our latest two GFS runs are, the NAM paints a different picture. This model, which is fairly accurate when it comes to short-range forecasting, has the shield of moisture a little bit more to the northwest; plus, a more vigorous low associated with the offshore piece of energy.
What this would mean for us is a period of light to moderate snow, which would result in our first measurable snowfall. Essentially, what is going on right now is a cautionary tale of not making the final call yet. We could end up with our cloudy and raw entrance into the weekend, or a little last minute surprise.
Now that the pattern change is in play and our first system is beginning to depart, we’ll be able to get a more accurate picture of what’s to come. I’d say by tomorrow morning to evening, we’ll have the most accurate idea on whether we have a close call on our hands, or our first snowfall.
In the meantime, the cold air is here, it’s here to stay for awhile, and even if this ends up being nothing, we’ll have plenty of more opportunities for wintry precip before any changes in the pattern again. We have approx. 2-3 weeks on unseasonably cold air ahead, and several systems down the road.
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