NYC Cool Long Range With Possible Issues
Good morning everyone. We have 2 beautifully warm days set up for today and tomorrow, then the big changes begin as Fiona passes well offshore and a strongish cold front passes by. Much cooler than the last couple of weeks will be the theme for the next 7-14 days, but we do have some long range issues in terms of possible tropical activity; and this is something I’ve been reiterating for the past few weeks.
SATELLITE
We’ll have sunshine and a steady breeze today with highs near or just above 80. Look for a repeat tomorrow with slight warmer temps as the winds calm down, then clouds will be on the increase overnight tomorrow.
A cold front will be swinging by on Thursday, and it’s slowed down a bit due to Fiona’s large airmass. We adjust for speed, plus add a little juice with the daytime heating. That’ll give us a chance of few morning showers, then more importantly, the chance of some afternoon/evening strong storms. Most of the energy will go north and east of us, but we should still get on the action. Highs will be in the low to mid 70’s (depending on sunshine).
WEATHER RADAR
Friday gives us sunshine and early October weather. You can expect breezy conditions with highs in the mid 60’s at best, then we go for lows near 50 overnight. Parts of NYC may dip below the 50 mark, but widespread 40’s are expected away from the City.
Things modify a bit on Saturday with low 70’s, then we’ll have mid to upper 70’s Sunday.
In the long range, it looks like we remain comfortable for the most part, with reinforcing shots of cool air. The unforeseen issue is with old fronts draped along the SE/Gulf Coast, which may pose a problem in terms of bringing up any hypothetical late-season storm or development along the fronts. This is something we’ve been discussing for quite some time, and we’ll have to watch for any tropical waves that enter the Caribbean at lower latitudes. The GFS and EURO hint at such an issue, but it’s way too early at this point to discuss anything since it’s not imminent and/or doesn’t exist yet. However, we remain vigilant as the pattern looks vaguely familiar before Hurricane Sandy. It doesn’t mean that a Sandy will happen, but it could help a system get caught up and brought up into the Gulf or SE coast.
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