NYC HEAT COMING GULF CONCERNS RISE
Good morning everyone. We have a busy holiday weekend and a hot one in store for New York City area tomorrow. Meanwhile, Gulf concerns increase for tropical activity and it’s going to have to be watched very closely.
First and foremost, today is looking partly to mostly sunny, with the slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm as hot and humid air drifts our way. Look for increasing humidity and highs in the low to mid 80’s today. For your Labor Day, partly to mostly sunny conditions continue, with muggy conditions and highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s; a perfect beach day.
For the rest of the week, hot weather continues through Thursday. As said yesterday, it looks as if Tuesday will be the hottest day of this 4 day stretch and records may be threatened. Expect low to mid 90’s Tuesday, then “cooling” back down to near 90 temps Wednesday and Thursday; with the slight chance of storms Thursday as relief is on its way.
Things get a little complicated towards the end of next week and next weekend itself. This is due to what may be a player in the Gulf on Wednesday and the eventual front that will drape across our area. Whatever does hit the Gulf coast, whether it be a tropical depression, tropical storm, or a surprise minimal hurricane, that moisture will be drawn up into the Mississippi Valley, then into the Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast.
So look for an increased chance of showers and storms Friday with highs in the low 80’s; then even a better chance of gusty showers and storms on Saturday with mid 70’s and humid. IF most of the energy goes to the north of us and there are no delays (or speed-ups), we could be back into the mid 80’s next Sunday with muggy conditions.
In the long range, very warm to relatively hot conditions want to try and return several times into at least mid-September, but there will periods of stronger relief; with our first taste probably coming the week of September 11th, but before that, we could reach 90 or near again.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
For the tropics, we have our eyes on Tropical Storm Florence off of Africa heading WNW, and our tropical wave heading towards SE Florida and into the Gulf. As of now, Florence is not an immediate threat to anyone or anything. The first leg of its track takes it well north of the Windward Islands, then we await and see if it gets on the bus headed to the North Atlantic, or misses its stop and starts heading west again. Timing and strength will be key to see if it misses the bus or not, but we are too far out to call the ball on that yet.
With the Gulf, our concern is rapid development of a wave that’ll move across parts of Florida and into the bath-like water on the other side. Due to its forward movement and what looks like a direct track, speed will save us on how strong it could get. However, the Gulf is notorious for explosive and rapid development, so we’ll have to see if we’re dealing with a depression, tropical storm, or a surprise last-minute minimal hurricane. Either way, the biggest threat will be flooding rain and tornadoes regardless of what type of storm we’re dealing with. So far, Baton Rouge, LA to Pensacola, FL are my main concerns in regards to any initial impact if any at all.