NYC LONG RANGE PATTERN HOSTILE AGAINST SNOW

NYC LONG RANGE PATTERN HOSTILE AGAINST SNOW

NYC LONG RANGE PATTERN HOSTILE AGAINST SNOW

NYC LONG RANGE PATTERN HOSTILE AGAINST SNOW – Good morning everyone. Snow, sleet, and rain has entered the picture, with a changeover already happening in many areas. Continue to use caution for the rest of the morning, especially while walking on slush/ice covered pavement.

Any mix we have, will change over to all rain within a couple of hours for parts still experiencing some frozen precip. After that, look for a cold rain all day and highs near 40. On the back end, look for cold air filtering back down tonight and gusty winds. This will cause a problem overnight with flash freezing, giving us patches of black ice and slick areas for those on the road.

Tomorrow will be sunny, cold, and windy. Look for highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, then we’ll modify somewhat into the upper 30’s for Friday. Warmer air arrives for the weekend, with cloudy skies, 45-50, and the chance of rain, especially on Sunday. As we begin our trek into mid February, the start of next week looks slightly above normal, with low to mid 40’s.

In the long range, I see nothing conducive for any big snow in the area. We’ll still have pockets of cold air, but as discussed for a couple of weeks now, system path and the lack of longevity for the cold air, will be a key factor in having a quiet rest of February snow-wise. We have plenty of systems that’ll transit the area, but their paths will generally be a warmer solution.

Basically, our only shot for snow will be onset of any system (much like today), or if a piece of energy is left behind as cold air moves in. That is the type of surprise we’ll have to look out for, but in theory we are looking very quiet as of now.

Last year at this time, a system such as today would have given us 60’s after the warm front passed. However, this is not happening because the south has been below average all year and theres not much warm air to work with. However, as the south begins to warm up dramatically over the next couple of weeks, we could see a day here or there of spring-like temps if our systems continue to take this westerly route.

 

 

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