NYC Saturday Thunderstorm Discussion
Good morning everyone. So far for our extended holiday weekend which started off on Thursday, we’ve had your typical summer-like weather here for the NYC area. Now it’s time for a brief break in the NY mugginess, but not before the chance of some more fireworks later in the form of thunderstorms.
SATELLITE
After a sunny start, look for clouds to work their way in for a mix of clouds and sun today. It’ll be very warm/hot and very humid, with highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s. This will provide enough fuel for thunderstorms and the direction of our frontal approach is “perfect” for severe weather, but there are some issues we have as far as predicting when, what, and how strong.
The “when” is easier than anything else. We’ll begin watching the skies and radar around 3pm for thunderstorms developing close to our area and off to our west and north. The two directions is from a cold front that’ll be pushing down from our NNW, and a wave out ahead of it pushing west. The timing of the wave with the front will be crucial in terms of what kind of action we’ll see.
If the front beats the wave, look for a line of strong to isolate severe weather to develop and move through from NNW to SSE, with the only question being the usual one – does the line break up as it gets here? or does it stay together. If we’re talking just pure frontal action, I’d say 5 – 8pm is your best shot for storms.
If the wave makes it here before the front suppresses it south of our area, then we are on for an enhanced experience as far as thunderstorm action and a more prolonged heavy rain event. This will equate to action coming in from our west, as well as the line coming down from the north. It will also equate to more pop-up action ahead of the front and ahead of the wave. As far as time frames if the wave gets into the action, some time between 3 – 8pm will be when most of the action occurs.
Regardless, any thunderstorms today will be capable of strong winds, frequent lightning, and torrential rain. If the wave gets involved, look for a better chance of severe weather. Since the air is so juicy, the rain could be pretty intense and tropical-like. The only thing we can do at this point is watch the radar, see what develops, and keep a close eye on that wave.
REGIONAL RADAR
For tomorrow, we calm down and begin to dry out, but some instability remains just like last Sunday. We’ll have mid 80’s, a light northerly flow, and dropping humidity, but the sun working the atmosphere could spark some isolated showers and storms. Most of the action, if any, will be in the interior of the Northeast, but any storms that do pop will be capable of gusty winds and hail. Keep an eye to the sky and don’t be surprised.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Everything is holding strong with our long range, which isn’t very long range anymore. Either way, Monday is looking seasonable and comfortable with low humidity and mid 80’s. then we increase the warmth on Tuesday with upper 80’s and dry.
Wednesday is looking very warm/hot and more humid, with upper 80’s to low 90’s, then we’ll see if we can get a brief break Thursday and Friday before we bring back more heat and humidity for next weekend.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.