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NYC SNOW RAIN TRANSITION POSSIBLE TUESDAY
Good morning everyone. Rain is knocking on the doorstep here in the NYC area, representing seasonably colder air moving back into the Northeast. Meanwhile, we have eyes on a reinforcing shot of cool air that may bring a few flakes Sunday night, and a bigger system Tuesday that could give us a snowy start IF the setup remains “right”.
With today’s system, the majority of the energy is going well north of us, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see any rainy activity. Look for rain creeping in over the next hour or so, then gradually tapering off late morning. Expect gradual clearing, then becoming windy with highs initially in the low to mid 50’s before colder air heads in later.
We’ll have a cold and windy night tonight with lows in the low to mid 20’s; then a seasonably cold and windy day tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 30’s. Sunday remains looking like the nicer of the two days, with light winds and highs in the mid to upper 30’s.
Overnight Sunday, a weak disturbance will swing by that’ll reinforce the cool air, possibly touching off some light snow. We’ll be keeping a close eye on that as moisture seems sparse, but things could get enhanced as it nears the coast. Unless anything changes, I’m keeping it as a chance of some scattered flakes, but I’ll be watching closely for any surprises.
On Monday, some clouds stick around from the previous disturbance, then lower and thicken again with our larger system approaching for Tuesday; highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. With lows in the mid to upper 20’s Monday night, cold air tries to dig its heels in for Tuesday’s system.
We’ll have to see how successful it is and it’s possible we could start off with some decent snows before things get washed away by a cold rain. If we do get some snow, don’t be surprised to see a brief period of intense snow with big, wet flakes, especially as that rain/snow line approaches.
With Central Park reporting just around/under 8″ or so for the season so far, it’s quite conceivable that we break 10″ for the season with the help of this one if things work out. In fact, if things work out “perfectly” before any changeover, we could potentially see 3-5″ out of this one before being washed away; making it the largest snowfall for the NYC area aside from the November surprise.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
We’ll watch everything as this can still go either way in terms of with a snow to rain type situation, or just a plain rain event. Either way, we probably end as rain on Wednesday with temps slightly above normal, then seasonably cold air works back in for Thursday.
We remain locked in this pattern where pulling off snow is very difficult even though it’s very active and there is plenty of cold air available. Any slight shift or surprise though could change the outcome of our winter in terms of being one of the least snowiest ones on record or not.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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