NYC SPRING SNOWSTORM WINTER STORM WARNINGS POSTED – Good morning everyone. We’re almost upon our spring snowstorm here in New York City and the news is bleak for those who wanted spring to arrive today. There’s a lot to go over with Nor’Easter number four, so let’s get started.

Multiple areas of energy are heading out of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley and are in the process of trying to transfer their energy to the coast. The first one today should go out with with a whimper; giving us the slight chance of some cold rain as it brushes us well to our south and east. Then, a second area of low pressure will form behind it as the other departs. This is where things get interested.

Rain will get steadier late night, then begin to mix with sleet and snow at or around midnight. This mixing stage should last into daybreak tomorrow, then a changeover to all snow is expected in the morning. As I stated yesterday, it’s March and there will be sticking issues. How heavy the snow gets and how fast we can cover the ground, will determine what our final accumulations look like. Mixing will be prolonged the further east you go on Long Island, potentially knocking down amounts, especially in the east end.

Snow Potential Map

Here is your latest snow map. I’m taking the issues we have with sticking in March, plus the period of mixing before changing to snow. Those will be your low end amounts if things take a while to stick. The high end of the spectrum (and the “+”) represents our areas to the N&W of NYC, if things stick easier here, and the prospect of any quick dumps with thundersnow. In the 5-10″ area, we could also see a few locally heavier amounts if they get in on the action in terms of thundersnow.

Snow, heavy at times, will continue all day tomorrow after the changeover and into the night; shutting off somewhere between 9pm and midnight in most areas. We also have strong winds to contend with, which should be sustained between 25-30mph at its peak, and gusts to 45mph. Highest wind gusts will be felt along the immediate coast, where some areas could see 45-55+mph gusts.

Because of these wind speeds, it’s possible we could reach Blizzard Warning criteria in select areas if we tack on prolonged heavy snow with low visibility. IF that does happen, it’ll most likely happen after we see the structure of the system and see where the heaviest snow, combined with the strongest winds, will set up.

Coastal flooding will also be an issue due to our slow departing low, prolonged easterly fetch, and being a few days removed from the new moon. Just as our first Nor’easter this month, look for the usual trouble spots to be affected. If you did not get water on that one, you will not get water on this one. If you had water on the stronger of the three past systems, or the “weaker ones”, now is the time to prepare again to protect property. Troubled, low lying, areas such as Gerritsen, Broad Channel, Freeport, Baldwin, Long Beach, Wantagh, Seaford, S. Massapequa, Lindenhurst, Bayville, and others, need to pay close attention.

Any remaining clouds and flurries are gone by Thursday morning, replaced with partial clearing, windy, and cold conditions. We remain below normal into early next week with highs only in the low to mid 40’s.

Stay tuned as we follow the storm. Yay! Spring………

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