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NYC Winter Storm Forecast Remains in Limbo
Good morning everyone. While we expect a major winter storm to impact the NYC Metro area and Northeast, the jury is still out as far as what the final result will be. Models continue to trend more west and north, with a slightly warmer solution in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic which may spell “trouble” for the NYC and Long Island as far as the final snow tally.
Whether you’re a big fan of the EURO or the GFS, both continue to trend slightly more west and north with each run. This morning’s run of the EURO has a changeover to sleet and rain in NYC and Long Island. Even the GFS with its colder solution, now has mixed precipitation nipping at the heels offshore of Long Island. We’ll have to wait and see if things lock in and stop moving, or we watch this continued trend westward and northward.
Regardless of what happens and even with a changeover, I believe the NYC area would see a big round of snow before any hypothetical mixing occurs.
SATELLITE
For today, we have a “mild” one with highs in the low to mid 40’s. Colder air begins to creep in overnight and tomorrow as highs drop into the mid 30’s. Overnight tomorrow will be absolutely frigid, with lows in the 5-10 degree range.
WEATHER RADAR
We’ll have to see whether high pressure is strong enough to fully lock in, or if low pressure is strong enough to nudge it offshore with less influence. Either way, Saturday is very cold with highs 15-20. Snow should begin before sunrise Sunday, and there is 0 doubt that this entire mess starts out as snow.
If mixing occurs and when the timing of that would be, will dictate the snow totals on that scenario. Mixing will knock the totals down to 6-12″ in most areas depending on the timing. If there is no mixing, we should see an 8-14″+ type snowfall; with many spots on the higher end of that spectrum. Again, this is not a powerful system; this is all about prolonged precipitation and a long-duration event. We are not expecting fierce winds with this as this is not a very deep low pressure system.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.