WICKED NYC NOREASTER IMMINENT – Good morning everyone! Today we get a clearer picture on what’s  unfolding in terms of the Nor’easter on it’s way. Low pressure has formed to our south and west with another system behind it, which help energize this low to create a very powerful system.  If I was to be asked about where this will rank in terms of overall strength, I would say pressure-wise, it may be able to hold it’s own against The Nor’easter of 2010.

Starting this afternoon, everything will begin to lift our way. Winds will remain rather light all day today, with the chance of rain increasing by mid to late afternoon; highs today will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s in the New York City area. Late tonight, the main area of convection will begin to spread over the area ahead of the low pressure system. Temps will drop into the upper 30’s, with a very cold rain, heavy at times all night. Winds will increase dramatically as well, with sustained winds 25-35mph just before or after midnight and wing gusts as high as 45mph, and even close to 50mph along the immediate shore. To add to the complexity of this system, there may be some periods of heavy sleet mixed with some rain north and west of the City, especially in higher elevations and at times of the heaviest precip. Any steady snow that falls will be well north and west of the City and also into upper New England.


In the graphic provided above, you can see the wind potential, especially along the immediate shore. Unlike the typical structure of a Nor’easter, where we see our highest winds north and west of the low pressure center; this one will have it’s strongest winds ahead of the main low pressure due to it’s interaction with a stubborn airmass ahead of it.

Rain, heavy at times will continue into tomorrow, with winds increasing even more and highs near 40. Winds at this point may reach 35-45mph sustained and winds gusts between 50-60mph. Along the immediate coast, don’t be surprised if we see some recorded wind gusts near or just over 70mph. It is very important to realize that while this is not a blizzard for the NYC area, this is still a full blown Nor’easter and needs to be taken seriously. Winds at this level can down tree limbs and even some trees due to the relatively soft soil with all of the rain we’ve had. Also, keep in mind to secure garbage pails, recycling bins, and any furniture on decks you may have left out due to the mild winter we’ve had so far. For this reason, we have a high wind warning in effect.

Coastal flooding will also be an issue, with tides 3-5 feet above normal during times of high tides. A prolonged Southeast to East to Northeast wind will pile water towards the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and the NYC area waters. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will most likely occur in flood prone areas along the south shore of the NYC area as well as Long Island. Minor flooding may occur in areas that see flooding in more severe Nor’Easters we’ve seen in the past. Due to these conditions, we have a coastal flood watch in the area tomorrow from 3pm to 10pm.

So here is a brief rundown on what’s in store –

High Wind Warning – 35 to 45mph winds with gusts 50 to 65+ mph

Coast Flood Watch – tidal departures of 3 to 5ft above normal with minor to moderate coastal flooding in flood prone areas

Heavy Rain – 2-4″ of rain possible, which will cause flooding in poor drainage areas and ponding on roads

Hurricane Force Wind Warning – Hurricane Force Wind warning for surrounding waters of the NYC area as well as all of Long Island. Seas 13-18ft possible nearshore or just offshore at the peak of this system as well as wind gusts near or at Hurricane Strength.



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WICKED NYC NOREASTER IMMINENT – The ingredients are coming together as convection begins to build in the south, energized by a system just behind it and an old front across New England.

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Rain is starting to head our way from the southwest and will become heavy at times by tonight.

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One wave of low pressure slips to the south of us, while the main batch of rain will begin to enter the radar this afternoon.
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