2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Update
Good morning everyone. We take a break from the daily forecasting today to bring to you a special discussion about the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season and what’s next. The simple answer as to what’s next, is nothing, but we’ll delve into why things have gone quiet and what’s to come.
First off, we’ll discuss climate expert predictions in terms of an above average season for us. The combination of warmer than average waters in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Guld of Mexico, combined with the La Nina effect, in theory should give us a well above average season.
SATELLITE
In the past, these predictions have fallen flat, with some of them being accurate, and some way off the mark. It has almost become a caricature of itself and basically no different than a Farmers Almanac “coin flip”. While there is specific scientific data and reasoning behind these predicitons, it is simply reduced to theory, and theory can be wrong.
Why though? While ocean temperatures play a role in providing enough fuel for storms, survival of storms, and rapid intensification of storms, there are other factors in play beyond ocean temperatures and the influencing factors of El Nino/La Nina.
The biggest factor is chance. Chance is your variable that cannot be predicted, and that includes the timing of fronts, high pressure, shear, Sahara dust, and the upwelling of ocean waters after a storm. All of these things can hinder the development and direction of viable systems, regardless of what ocean temperatures do/did prior to the start of the season, and what the “Ninas” do as far as influencing factors.
This season, we got off to a fiery start, with Tropical Storm Alberto being borne out of stubborn tropical activity stalled in the upper Caribbean and Gulf; then with Hurricane Beryl breaking all sorts of records in terms of early development, rapid development, and source of development. Now though, things have gone quiet.
That’s not to say it won’t get busy again, it will. Think of this early activity as a Earth’s pressure release valve. The moisture, energy, and heat built up in excess, is now average again for now. The ocean in Beryl’s path is now cooler due to upwelling, and the Saharan dust has returned with Beryl’s departure.
WEATHER RADAR
We’re not here to tell you that the rest of the season is going to be quiet because it’s quiet now, but in the same respect, an early start doesn’t equate to a historically busy season either. It’s no different than summer seasons in which we get an early hot day in April and someone says, “if it’s hot now, imagine how hot it’s going to be this summer.” It doesn’t always ring true and many times, a seasonably average season occurs after a few early hot days.
It’s also important to remember that “quiet” Hurricane Seasons can produce some of the worst hurricanes. 1992 is a glaring example of this, where we only had 5 named storms, and a “later-than-average” Hurricane Andrew was one of them. It only takes 1 very strong, poorly “placed” hurricane to make a bad season.
My advice is, enjoy the peace and quiet for now. Don’t get worked up over early activity. Use this quiet time to go through your supplies and plans in order to prepare for a busy season IF it does occur.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.