ACTIVE PATTERN SPARKS NYC SNOWY INTERNET HYSTERIA

ACTIVE PATTERN SPARKS NYC SNOWY INTERNET HYSTERIA – Good morning everyone. As we close in on the holiday weekend, the internet is abuzz looking too far down the road, and predicting an early to mid April snowstorm for New York City. For those looking for the Easter forecast, click here. For those looking for a reality check, read on.

I’m going to jump right to it and calm some fears – There is no snowstorm on the horizon for the New York City/Long Island area. We are in an active pattern and there will be the continuing of systems marching across the Nation, but it’s extremely difficult to pull off a snowstorm this time of year.

Look at how our March went and as one who had to forecast 4 Nor’easters, you can see how hard it was to pull off accumulating snow even with heavy snow falling. Take March and then imagine how much more difficult it would be in April for it to happen. Has it? Sure, but it’s extremely rare and I don’t see any system on the horizon that has the potential to dump accumulating snow in NYC.

For those who like to model watch, models have a very difficult time this time of year deciphering the layers of cold air and warm air in the atmosphere. Add into the mix our increasing sun angle (this time of year it begins to play a role), and you have models that are “off”, sometimes showing snowstorms that really end up being total rainouts.

Unless we see a very rare system, typically the NYC area can see some wet flakes/mix in the air if – 1) The onset of precip, typically well ahead of a warm front, begins at night and after the passage of a vigorous system a day or two prior. 2) The departure of a strong system which pulls down enough cold air for a brief changeover before it departs. So it’s all about timing in late March/early April, very hard to pull off, and typically brief too.

I can understand some April jitters after a very rough March, but right now the internet and many models are in fantasy land. Let’s take one system at a time and for those who celebrate, enjoy your Passover and Easter.