Catastrophic Hurricane Ian Poised To Slam Florida West Coast
Good morning everyone. A worst-case scenario is about to play out not he west coast of Florida as Hurricane Ian begins emerging from Cuba and starts heading towards the most populated and overbuilt areas of the west coast. Locally here, we have some really beautiful weather, but Ian will steal the headlines and take priority over what’s going on up here.
SATELLITE
Sunshine rules today with low to mid 70’s, then we sink down to the near 70 mark tomorrow as sunshine continues. Thursday looks sunny as well, with upper 60’s to near 70; then we will have increasing clouds later on Friday with upper 60’s to near 70 again.
WEATHER RADAR
As for Hurricane Ian, he is emerging from Cuba and looking very healthy. We talked during our live session last night that it looked as if an eye was trying to form, and it did overnight. Outflow is looking good, inflow is uninterrupted, so we will see some strengthening beyond the 125mph sustained winds it has now.
If you haven’t already evacuated from areas between Ft Meyers and Tampa, the time to do so is now. For those in the Ft Meyers area, do not be fooled with the center going west and making landfall north of you. The stage for a life threatening storm surge is already set. Evacuate to higher ground and take action to protect property and life. High tide is between 2-2:15am tonight, which means some roads may be impassible by car overnight. Even if the first surge is not life threatening, it may be just enough to strand you and keep you in a life threatening situation for the rest of the event.
This is why anyone in the surge warning zone, should evacuate today if you haven’t already.
On top of the storm surge, Category 3 winds with possibly Category 4 gusts, are possible where Ian makes landfall. This will do major structural damage or cause structural failure to most homes not built to modern code, and there are MANY out there built from the 1950’s through 90’s. For those in the path and in an area where Ian’s eye wall may make landfall, you should also be making pans to evacuate and get out ASAP.
As for timelines, start watching for enhanced tides and minor/moderate coastal flooding at the first high tide overnight tonight. That’s around 2am for the Ft Myers area, and 4am for the Tampa area. (Key West is already experiencing these tidal departures). If you live on the bay and not the ocean, you are NOT safe. There will actually be more water piling into the bays and backwaters compared to the ocean, because it acts like a funnel. We saw this during Sandy with Raritan Bay and NJ/Staten Island; they had it the worst.
Tropical storm conditions will be felt starting bewteen 11am and 2pm tomorrow, then conditions will quickly deteriorate as the main bands and core gear up for landfall. Landfall will probably occur some time between 11pm tomorrow and 4am overnight, depending on steering mechanisms and final path. This will be when the worst conditions are felt, but we’ll have a long way to go as far as rain and hurricane force winds away from the center as the wind-field expands.
The story doesn’t end at landfall, or at the storm’s center either. Away from center of circulation, we can expect flooding rains, tropical storm force winds and/or gusts, plus the likelihood of numerous brief tornados. Ian’s impacts already being felt in the Florida Keys, and we have tornado watches up for much of S. Florida. Those watches will extend northward as Ian progresses, and we will also see flooding, severe weather, and tropical storm force gusts into Georgia, South Carolina, and maybe even parts of North Carolina in the upcoming days.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.