COMPACT FAST MOVING STORM BRINGS NYC AREA MODERATE SNOW SWATH
COMPACT FAST MOVING STORM BRINGS NYC AREA MODERATE SNOW SWATH
COMPACT FAST MOVING STORM BRINGS NYC AREA MODERATE SNOW SWATH – Good morning everyone. As time went on yesterday, solutions started to trend colder on short range models for Saturday night’s energy heading towards us. I eagerly waited for this morning to see if there were any changes and it snapped back to NYC dancing on the rain/snow line, but it has actually gone slightly colder.
Winter Storm watches are now in effect for the entire NYC metro area and Long Island due to this new information, but let’s discuss today’s weather first because it has to do with tomorrow. For today, the last of the rain will transit through the area and should be all clear by early to late afternoon. Our temps early this morning, which are in the upper 50’s, now will be our highs for the day as a cold front passes by and temps drop through the 50’s, then 40’s, then drop into the mid 20’s to near 30 tonight.
We clear out temporarily overnight, but clouds will be on the increase tomorrow again. This is essentially the exact scenario I was talking about for the past 2 weeks in terms of how our area would/could get snow during a hostile pattern such as this. Energy will be left over in the Mississippi Valley as our front stalls out as it passes by, then slide towards our area timed perfectly with a quick shot of cold air.
SNOW MAP GENERATED
There will be just enough cold air in the area to produce a big swath of 4-7″ snows with locally higher amounts possible. The New York City area and Long Island still dance very close to that rain/snow line, so it’s important to be cautious in the back of one’s mind if you’re a snow lover. However, models are trending colder and we should take note. As of this very moment, confidence on this snow map is moderate. It’ll probably remain moderate and not high until I see the exact set-up as far as where the rain/snow line finally sets up.
This will be a very quick moving and compact system, so it will only be capable of a certain amount of snow. Look for snow to move in and begin by late evening tomorrow. At least on the onset, it will be a wet snow, heavy at times. If the atmosphere cools off enough with this heavy precip, it might turn into more of a powdery type before it departs. It’ll be a quick shot though and gone before or just after sunrise Sunday.
We’ll call this a moderate sized event, with heavy snow in short duration, AND a very large cheap thrill. Why a cheap thrill? Because by Tuesday or Wednesday the latest, it’ll look like nothing ever happened. Look for mid 40’s by Sunday afternoon, then rain and near 50 Monday, and possibly 60-65+ temps on Tuesday and Wednesday with some real warm air moving on in. The big melt will be on full blast after this one.
Stay tuned and we will update as needed.
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