First Season’s Winter Storm Final Call
Good morning everyone. We’ve arrived at the moment of truth, and quite honestly, there’s not much truth to be had in terms of a rock solid forecast. Our two-part system remains a wild card as most do, and are my least favorite types of systems to forecast. Regardless, I’m making the final call as far as snow totals, so let’s see what happens.
SATELLITE
We have a lull in the action this morning, but rain will pick up again as we head into the day. Temps are as high as you’ll see them, and mid to upper 30’s will drop to the low 30’s by late afternoon/early evening. Rain will begin to mix with snow between 12pm-3pm, then change to all snow around or after sunset.
FINAL CALL SNOW MAP, WITH SOME CAVEATS
Here is the final call on our snow total map, and there are some things that needed to be pointed out before everyone goes nuts. First and foremost, the ground will be wet, so snow will take a little bit of time to accumulate. For the NYC Metro Area, most of that accumulation will be on colder surfaces, such as cars, grass, and trees. With the roads being treated (hopefully), you will not see 2-4″ accumulating on the most roads. If you’re dreaming in your head of waking up and seeing a scene from A Christmas Story, get it out of your head.
The south shore of Queens and Long Island will have the toughest time as far as seeing accumulating snow. It’ll take longer to stick, longer to changeover, and most of the energy will be concentrated away from the area.
The best chance to see 2-4″ remains in Manhattan, Staten Island, Central/Northern Queens, Central Brooklyn, the Bronx, and the North Shore of Long Island. Central parts of Long island just away from the shore should see 1-3″.
Now, the big elephant in the room, the East End. Why is Angry Ben doing this? Because I’m crazy, that’s why. Actually, the East End will most likely see a trace-2″ out of this. The 2-6″ spectrum on the map with the question mark is solely in case we get a little parting heavy band at the end. It happens and I’m leaving it out there. Likely? No, but keep the shovel and brush handy in case of a surprise.
N&W of the City, I feel we will probably be on the lower to middle end of the spectrum I showed, with some locally higher amounts.
Confidence on this map and the forecast overall is mixed. For N&W of NYC, confidence is high, NYC is moderate, and Long Island is meh. For those in NJ, the shore/central NJ confidence is meh too. The NAM and HRRR show a parting burst, but you honestly can’t predict that, and neither can the models faithfully. At least I’m honest. Let’s see what happens now and I’m guessing there will be some surprises and busts mixed into the entire outcome by late tonight/tomorrow morning.
REGIONAL RADAR
We might see a flurry here or there tomorrow AM, but the biggest issue will be icy local roads and roads that are untreated. Highs tomorrow will be near 40, so a melt will ensue with some afternoon sunshine.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.