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Latest GFS Models Show NYC Weekend Snowstorm
Good morning everyone. As one storm begins to depart the East Coast via the Mid-Atlantic, we begin to watch “phase 2” in regards to a follow-up arctic blast of air. This will come with the accessory of another powerful storm system; and with extra cold air locked in, we could see deeper-diving snows and freezing rain.
For today, bitter cold air rushes in behind our system, and that cold air will rush all the way down to the Gulf Coast and Southeast into Florida. That will set the scenario for a similar setup to what we saw over the past couple of days. Our next system is due in to dive down through the Rockies via the Pacific Northwest, then come out into the Lower Plains and hook up with Gulf energy and moisture.
SATELLITE
This time, our system sets up further to the south. In turn, this could bring heavy snows down into Oklahoma as well as northeast Texas. Where the rain/snow line sets up, that in-between boundary of overunning warm air, will create a narrow band of heavy sleet and freezing rain. This could mean we could see ice storm conditions across parts of extreme northeast Texas, upper Louisiana, and lower Arkansas some time Thursday afternoon, onward.
Just north of that rain/snow line, heavy snow is likely; and just like this past system, the warm quadrant of our system could contain some severe weather. As of now, if the system sets up according to the GFS model, that severe thunderstorm risk would be confiined to the Gulf Coast region of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
WEATHER RADAR
Where that storm stops is where the EURO and GFS weather models differ. The EURO has a weakening storm exiting the East Coast across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic with nothing more than a whimper. However, the GFS latest model run continues to show a possible Nor’Easter scenario for parts of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and into New England.
If this scenario were to hold, we could be looking at a major snowstorm with possible blizzard conditions across the Northeast and New England. We have a long way to go on this, but at minimum, both the EURO and GFS weather models agree on the likelihood of ice and/or snow for parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
As for today, light snows will whiten the ground and eventually come to an end this afternoon. Look for windy conditions to develop, and we will be stuck in the 25-30 degree range w/ sunshine through Thursday. Stay tuned for the latest updates.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.