LONG RANGE OUTLOOK NYC MIDDLE LATE SPRING 2018

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK NYC MIDDLE LATE SPRING 2018 – Good morning everyone, welcome to a special edition of Angry Ben’s forecast. Along with a brief synopsis of our current weather situation, I’ll be going into what to expect for the New York City area in the upcoming weeks and into late spring.

First off, we have another round of rain coming through as low pressure to our north sends another spoke of energy across the area. Rain should be over within the next couple of hours and we’ll have some partial clearing. A brisk northwest wind will help keep unseasonably cool air locked in and add a little windchill to the day; highs in the mid 50’s. Tonight, clouds and showers return late and it’ll be a cold one for this time of year. Expect low 40’s on the heat island, but 30’s in surrounding areas.

The slight chance of showers sticks around for the first part of the day tomorrow, while cool temps and a brisk breeze remains; highs in the mid 50’s again. Sun and mid 70’s magically appear on Tuesday, then we rise into the upper 70’s to low 80’s for Wednesday. Some very warm air gets pumped in for Thursday and Friday, where many areas away from the shores will see mid to upper 80’s, possibly 90 in notoriously warmer spots.

Everything comes to an end on Saturday, but for thunderstorm fans, it looks as if this wave of unseasonably warm air will go out with a whimper. As of now, look pressure looks to go way to our north, dragging a cold front through late Friday night or before sunrise Saturday morning. This is not the recipe for some butt-kicking storms to end the heat. Look for highs in the mid to upper 60’s Saturday, then mid 60’s Sunday as of now; however, Sunday could be potentially cooler.

In the long range, this return to seasonable temps looks short-lived. First, we’ll have a return to slightly above normal temps, then maybe some more front-related heat late in that following week. For mid-May, the ridge will rebuild and after another brief cool-down, warm air wants to return in a big and prolonged way. This pattern seems to want to repeat itself over and over again for the long range.

So in my opinion, May is looking above normal temp-wise overall, with several patches of very warm 3-4 day blocks. Our cool downs seem to consist of a brief return to average temps, maybe 1 cooler than average day, then a return to slightly above normal temps, followed by more heat. Then, rinse and repeat.

If this pattern holds, it’ll have interesting “ramifications” for the summer, especially at the coast. An above average May will help water temps rebound quickly and possibly enter the above average realm. As in last year, a cool summer will subdue local ocean temps, but if the warmth holds through June, our beaches and coastal areas could experience a warmer than normal late spring and summer. This is because with warmer water, the role our marine layer (seabreeze and localized fog) will play will be reduced and shortened.

As of now it’s all speculation, but we could be looking at a potentially very warm approach towards summer for the entire area.