MILD NYC AFTERNOON PRECEDES FRIDAY SNOW
MILD NYC AFTERNOON PRECEDES FRIDAY SNOW
MILD NYC AFTERNOON PRECEDES FRIDAY SNOW – Good morning everyone! A tough forecast is ahead of us as we wait for several systems to play out in and around the NYC area. Today and tomorrow will be the easy part, with sun and clouds today, highs 60-65; then cooling off a bit and breezy tomorrow, increasing clouds, highs 50-55.
Forecasted snow accumulations for Friday
On Thursday night, clouds increase as an overrunning area of energy spreads into the NYC area. As cold air begins to bleed into the area, any light showers will turn to snow before sunrise on Friday. Snow will continue throughout the morning, possibly mixing with some rain before ending by afternoon. At this point I think snow will initially have a hard time sticking, especially on the roads, but we could see 1-3″ especially on colder surfaces; such as grassy areas, cars, branches, and roofs. Highs will be 35-40 for Friday, so anything that does fall will be wet in nature and melt as precip stops.
After everything passes on Friday, very cold air will move over the area and make for a frigid night. Lows will be in the upper teens to near 20, so anything that does fall will freeze very quickly and could make for treacherous roads late Friday night and Saturday with black ice. On Saturday, that cold airmass remains over the area and highs only getting into the upper 20’s. While one wouldn’t blink an eye if this was mid-January, this is extremely cold for our approach to mid-March.
The system we were watching on Sunday gets pushed to our south, hence this cold air. A few days ago, I was discussing this possibility that the cold air might win out and suppress this system into the mid-Atlantic states. It has done so and more, pushing it all the way into North Carolina, giving them a shot at some rare March snow; but by doing so, we’ll also be in the 30’s Sunday and Monday, and 20’s at night. This scenario sets us up for a possible situation next week.
I’m not going to put any graphics up yet because it’s way too early and we pride ourselves on not jumping the gun, but I will briefly discuss what we’re watching. Sunday’s system was very important as to what it opens up or closes behind it. Right now, we’re keeping an eye on a wave of energy slipping down from Canada, into the upper Midwest, and then possibly transferring energy to the coast as it hits the Appalachians. While this is going on, a blocking high will transit across lower Canada and pass just north of New England. IF the timing is right, it could set up a scenario we really haven’t seen all winter and give us the ingredients we need for a tremendous March storm for the Northeast Corridor. The pieces of the puzzle are there – we have the Sunday miss, the cold air in place, the wave of energy, and the blocking high; now we have to wait and see if all of these ingredients come together, or they don’t phase and the entire scenario falls apart. However, it is on our radar, almost all of the models see what we see, and we will be keeping a close eye on it. Stay tuned.
Satellite View
MILD NYC AFTERNOON PRECEDES FRIDAY SNOW – A strong cold front passes by, setting us up for a nice day today, but making way for cold air to creep in and a snowy (light now) Friday.
Northeast Radar
MILD NYC AFTERNOON PRECEDES FRIDAY SNOW – Showers pass on by associated with a cold front. Things will remain quiet and dry until late tomorrow night/early Friday.
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