NYC SNOW POTENTIALS WAX WANE – As time goes on, we’re getting a clearer picture of at least how Friday may play out as questions linger for the late weekend system. First, we have to get through a milder Tuesday and Wednesday, before we start dealing with any transitions.

Today, we’ll have some rain in the area throughout most of the morning and into the afternoon; cloudy skies with highs in the mid 50’s. Overnight, another steady shot of rain moves in and will be with us into tomorrow late morning. Because of this, tomorrow’s highs will have a tough time getting past 60 as we would need some earlier sun to help us to the 65-70 realm.

On Thursday, we’ll have partial clearing before the clouds increase again. Temperatures will drop through the 50’s then 40’s late in the day, setting us up for Friday’s scenario. As of now, it seems as if we will be on the northern fringe of a band of over-running precip associated with a weak low to our south. The chance of a few light rain showers will shift to light snow as colder air drops in overnight Thursday. Depending on where we find ourselves in this area of snow, we have the potential to see 1-3″ before it quickly scoots out Friday afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 40’s when everything clears out, so anything that does fall will begin to melt quickly with the help of some March sun. Over-running areas of snow are some of the most challenging types to predict, and any shift north or south could mean the difference between 1-3″, 2-4″ or nothing since we are expected to be on the fringe to begin with, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on this to see the final setup.

As far as the late weekend storm is concerned, things are pointing to a big problem for the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong high pressure system suppresses a more robust system to our south. We have to keep an eye on this because we can suddenly find ourselves on the northern fringe for another light accumulation of snow, or the models could get this wrong and it trends fully or at least moderately back north as it did when trying to decipher a Mid-Atlantic storm back in January. All of this bears close watching as activity and cold ramps up to finish out the season, even past the late weekend potential and further down the road.


Local Radar

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NYC SNOW POTENTIALS WAX WANE – rain heads in associated with a warm front, then again tonight and tomorrow with the trailing cold front. Cooler air heads back in late Thursday to set us up for a brief taste of winter possibly on Friday.

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