NYC BIG PATTERN CHANGES AHEAD – Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my weekly long range outlook. First, we’ll start off with the easy stuff, the immediate forecast. Today was slightly warmer than expected and it ended up being a beautiful day. Highs reached the lower 50’s with a nice breeze out of the northwest. Tomorrow will also be slightly warmer than previously expected, with highs again in the low 50’s, but it’ll feel warmer with much lighter winds. Clouds will increase tomorrow night as our next system approaches the area, with lows only going down to the mid to upper 40’s.


NYC BIG PATTERN CHANGES AHEAD – On Tuesday, a large storm system approaches the area. Low pressure will get hung up in the upper midwest and an elongated front will occlude around the Great Lakes/become stationary around the Ohio Valley and into the south. This will send waves of low pressure troughs into the northeast and along with it, periods of steady rain. Expect rain starting Tuesday early to mid morning as the first wave approaches the area. Cloudy skies, periods of scattered rain, and fog, will persist in between the low pressure waves, highs 60-65 Tuesday. On Wednesday, another wave riding along the old front will give us afternoon rain, highs in the low 60’s. Temps both days will be slightly cooler along the immediate shore due to the realtively cooler ocean waters. On Thursday, the system will eventually pull out, but not before a chance of some morning rain, highs near 60, but dropping as we get into the late afternoon/evening.

Later in the week and into next weekend, temperatures will slowly decline, from near 50 on Friday, to mid 40’s by Sunday. Another system will take shape mid to late week next week, and we could see 60’s possible once again (December 8th or 9th +/-1 day) ahead of this system as a similar setup may happen. After this though, things will begin to change drastically, especially for our friends in the west coast, the southwest, and lower mid-west, before eventually sliding our way.

Right now, our storm path essentially takes the systems into the upper west coast, southeastward across the Rockies, then heading northeast into the upper plains or Ohio Valley, and eventually across the St Lawrence Valley before exiting the area. This track cuts off most of the cold air locked up in Canada and any cold air we do see, is in reaction to a departing low pulling relatively cold air down from up north.

Heading into the second week of December, there is a shift in the system path. Now we see a deep trough developing in the west, bringing the systems across the lower half of the west coast and into Texas, before either turning northeast, or continuing the march east. This will tap the cold air up north and don’t be surprised if we see snow in areas like New Mexico and the panhandle of Texas at this point. There are even models that show the possibility of flakes in our area by late 2nd week of December/mid December, as this pattern eventually shifts east and we see our systems able to tap this cold air.

We are definitely entering a more winter-like pattern. I don’t foresee any major arctic blasts in the immediate or intermediate future, but we will have a very active period of systems, with cold air available as they take a more southern approach to the United States. Typically, and especially in the last 15 years, the NYC area on average has seen it’s first snowstorms mid-December, so it looks like we may be on schedule depending on how things actually shape up. Stay tuned as we get closer to these changes for pinpoint accuracy as far as timing and what to expect.

For more on the long range, check out my counterpart, Joe “Joestradamus” Cioffi  with his latest post on the long range forecast


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NYC BIG PATTERN CHANGES AHEAD – One system departs, and another one enters stage-left. The story of our previous and next few weeks.

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Northeast radar is essentially quiet, with a few scattered sprinkles upstate.

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Local radar is quiet, expect another beautiful day tomorrow before things change.


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