NYC COASTAL STORM TIMING PATH SOLIDIFYING

Good morning everyone. Continuing to dominate the news, our prospective Nor’easter/coastal storm here for the New York City area, is starting to become more clear in terms of what expect and when. Meanwhile, cooler air has moved in and will be stubborn for the rest of October and to start November.

EASTERN SATELLITE

Partly to mostly sunny skies will dominate today, but wind will be the biggest feature today. Expect a windy day with a stiff NW wind 15-20+ and highs in the low to mid 50’s. Tomorrow, we calm the wind down a bit, but it’ll still be on the steady side. We go down into the upper 40’s to mid 50’s and keep a 10-15mph breeze around; making it feel much cooler. On Friday, we begin to cloud up as things are moving ahead of schedule for our approaching system.

Coastal Hugger? Or Slightly Inland

We’re starting to get a much clearer picture this morning on what expect. We still have a few nuances to work out as far as nailing down the timing and path exactly, but the differences are negligible compared to a few days ago or even yesterday. As of now, the EURO and GFS are starting to agree on an earlier storm and a closer path hugging the coast or slightly inland.

It looks as if we’ll have our rain move in Friday night or Saturday morning depending on which model you subscribe to. One also shows the bulk of the heavy rain before sunrise Saturday and the other Saturday afternoon. In time, this will be worked out, but at least we’re not at 24hr differences now precip-wise.

As far as path is concerned, it won’t matter in terms of what type of precip we see around here. It’s simply too “warm” here for a snow event, so lets put that to rest. What will matter though in terms of path, will be winds and precip. A coastal hugger will bring more wind to the coast, whereas a more inland track could get the interior in on the action and higher convection-related wind near Cape Cod and Nantucket. Also, a storm moving slightly inland could give the NYC, LI and CT coast some heavier rain and rumbles of thunder.

All in all, there are small differences in the big scheme of things, which will narrow in scope by tomorrow morning/afternoon. Our biggest threat will be possible minor/moderate (in notoriously flood prone areas) coastal flooding with an earlier arrival and the moon helping out. It’ll also be enhanced because while the heaviest precip will be early, the influence of our system overall will be slow to depart.

Stay tuned as we hone everything in.