NYC COASTAL WINDMAKER BREWING MODELS LEAN REALISTIC SNOW WISE

When models get a little wacky here in the NYC area, I always like to shut things down, recharge, and wait for the next day. If they show the same scenario 24 hours later, then it might raise an eyebrow. So this morning, things are looking more realistic for our coastal storm/Nor’easter-like system when it meets some relatively colder air. Meanwhile, we have a decent day today until a reinforcing shot of cooler air nears the area.

EASTERN SATELLITE

Clouds were a little more stubborn yesterday than previously thought, and today looks similar in terms of cloud cover. Expect some peeks of sun, a steady SW light wind, and highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. We’ll also have the slight chance of a shower later as that cooler air heads in. Tomorrow, we drop into the low to mid 50’s, increase the wind for a stiff breeze out of the NW, and the clouds will clear on out. The wind sticks around Thursday, but so does the sunshine. It’ll be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 40’s.

REGIONAL RADAR

With things moving along a little faster in terms of storm development, it changes the dynamic of our weekend. We’ll start off with increasing clouds Friday and highs in the upper 40’s to near 50, then we wait and watch to see what our potential system does.

Timing, Path, and Strength are key

With low pressure seemingly off of North Carolina by late Friday night/early Saturday morning, it looks as if we start the action a little earlier than previously thought. Instead of a Sunday into Monday event, it’s possible we may have a mid-Saturday into Sunday event; with the bulk of the “action” occurring Saturday night.

It’s still too early to know exactly what we’ll see here, but at least the models have returned back to earth compared to yesterday showing an all-out snowstorm for interior parts of the Northeast. This go around, they’re depicting a mix of rain, sleet, and wet snow initially, turning to all rain, then possibly a mix or wet snow as everything departs for the interior.

For our neck of the woods, it’ll be all rain as this time of year is very rare to pull off a mostly snow event. In terms of track and strength, that’ll have an impact on what we see exactly in terms of wind and rain. Plus, if the system is strong enough and takes an offshore route, we MIGHT see a few wet flakes mixed in with any light precip left behind as everything departs. Meanwhile, a near-shore or inshore route will keep it a plain cold rain with anything stubborn left behind.

For coastal sections, they will see the worst of the winds if things get going. We could possibly see 40-50+mph gusts along the immediate shore if the forecast holds.

Bunch it all together, and a slightly earlier system paves a clear path to my Hail-Mary Halloween forecast I will have made almost 3 weeks prior to the spooky day. For now, we’re still holding onto (and slightly solidifying) that breezy, sunny, and cool day for Halloween, with temps slightly below normal.

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