NYC POSSIBLE NOREASTER SHOWING RARE COLDER SOLUTION
Good morning everyone. Approximately six days ago when I started talking about an increased storm potential for the New York City area in the upcoming weeks, the “S” word was mentioned. This morning, some our models mentioned the “S” word for the interior Northeast, but we must approach with caution. Meanwhile, we have a quiet week ahead before things start to get a little squirrelly.
EASTERN SATELLITE
Early this morning, we have a thin, scattered veil of clouds moving through as our air begins to modify slightly ahead of a reinforcing shot of cooler air. For the most part, we’ll have sunny skies today with highs in the low to mid 50’s, and winds will calm down a lot compared to yesterday. We’ll swing it around to the SW and keep it light and steady, but no gusts.
REGIONAL RADAR
It’ll be a dry week and tomorrow looks to be the best day overall before cooler air sneaks back in. Look for sunny skies and highs 55-60. Not quite normal, but not too bad relatively speaking. Things get windy Tuesday night as that rush of cooler air works in, and we’ll keep that wind around for Wednesday with sunny skies and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Thursday continues to look like the coldest (relatively) day of the work-week with sunny skies and highs in the mid to maybe upper 40’s. Friday also looks unseasonably cool, with sunny skies once again and highs in the upper 40’s to near 50.
After that, we begin to keep an eye on any potential system moving in for late weekend and into early next week….(see below)
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Some of the morning model runs should have an asterisk that says “proceed with caution” and all types of caveats. The GFS puts a tightly wound system off of Cape Cod, then wobbling around the Bay of Fundy; pulling down enough cold air for snow in the interior parts of the Northeast. This is one of those times where you have to say, “it’s too early” and we need to watch it.
Can it snow in the Northeast this early? Yes, we had snow after Sandy back in 2012 and all the way to the coast. However, to achieve that level of cold for daytime flakes, it’ll have to work out “perfectly” which is very very rare. So what I want to do for today is put the model runs on the shelf and wait for tomorrow. Do not get excited or concerned over this one run. It’s too early to toss a ball end zone to end zone when it comes to snow talk. If anything, and this was mentioned on the 16th when I talked about storm potentials, we could end a big system with some early-season wet flakes if it’s powerful enough.
What we do know is that the potential is there for our first Nor’easter of the season, and final path and strength (if any), will play a role on what kind of conditions we see as the storm departs. So go about your day, pretend this didn’t happen, and we’ll keep a close eye on everything.
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