NYC Complicated Forecast Ahead For Thursday
Good morning everyone. The entire area has a wonderful day ahead today with sunshine developing and very comfortable temps for this time of year. Unfortunately, it ends quickly and things start to go downhill by tomorrow as we get ready for our next system.
This morning, some lingering clouds may be a little pesky, but sunshine will be with us for much of the day. We’ll have mild temps in the low to mid 50’s. We definitely made the right called by not getting too excited over the warm air, and we’re already slipping away tomorrow.
Clouds will be on the increase quickly tomorrow as a piece-meal, 35 part system heads our way. We’ll have the slight chance of some showers, and we’ll have highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Without the sunshine, it’ll have a somewhat raw feel to the air even though we are well above average.
We’ll have another light chance of rain overnight tomorrow night as small patches of precipitation head our way; then the chance of some more widely scattered showers on Wednesday with a cloud-ridden day and highs in the low to mid 40’s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The cool Wednesday is the sign of a growing problem in terms of colder air sneaking in and possibly being a little stubborn for a while overnight and into Thursday. Another round of precip heads in overnight Wednesday, and with lows in the low 30 to mid 30’s (colder away from NYC proper), we could see a round of snow and/or freezing rain and sleet.
The National Weather Service is calling for 1-3″ of snow overnight into Thursday morning, but I’m going to hold off on that because I don’t see it yet. However, at a minimum, I do see Thursday morning being a problem with the morning commute and possibly into late morning, especially N&W of NYC.
Regardless of what happens, we know for a fact that any snow, sleet, and freezing rain mix will turn to rain at some point, and accumulations will be light if any at all. This is a commuting issue and delayed school opening issue (especially N&W of NYC); not a shoveling and plow issue. Highs Thursday will be in the low 40’s, so we are going to rain at some point no matter what.
Once Thursday is done and we are raining, another wave, probably the “strongest” one, will form as that front finally begins to make its final approach. Look for a round of steady rain overnight Thursday into Friday, possibly heavy at times. We could see some localized flooding Friday morning in poor drainage areas; then as colder air sneaks in behind strengthening low pressure, we could see a departing flurry or snow shower. Highs Friday in the mid 40’s, dropping through the 30’s before sunset.
In the long range, we continue to see nothing major on the immediate horizon, and our pattern remains very snow-hostile. Overall, I wouldn’t call this an overtly mild winter temp-wise. Aside from a mild, front-related, day here and there, we’ve been only slightly above average otherwise. We’ve had a lot of days in the low 40’s where our historic average highs are upper 30’s, so it’s not a big deal and not like the warm winter season we had of 2011/2012.
The pattern is simply not snow-friendly as the jet stream is take our systems to our west or suppressing them well south. Look for that trend to continue unless we see otherwise, and welcome to many of the winters we had in the 1980’s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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