NYC COOL BLAST ARRIVES COASTAL STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES
Good morning everyone. Our New York City cool blast has arrived on time and in windy fashion after a quick shot of gusty showers late last night. Meanwhile, moisture hanging around along the Gulf Coast and reinforcing shots of cooler air, increase our potential to see our first coastal storm of the autumn season over the course of the next few weeks.
Our satellite looks a little milky this morning, but most of that is from cold air aloft and very high, thin clouds. For the most part, it’ll be a bright day with sun making it through those icy cirrus. Winds should subside as we head later into the day with highs 55-60. Overnight, winds will calm down even more, but our coolest air hasn’t settled in yet; so expect lows in the mid to upper 40’s here in the NYC area, and we could see some scattered 30’s on Long Island.
Those clouds will lower and thicken a little bit tomorrow, but don’t expect any precip; it’s just the leading edge of even cooler air moving in. However, winds will increase as the wind machine ramps up. Westerlies should help us get into the upper 50’s to low 60’s, but a stiff breeze and 30+mph gusts will make it feel just as cool as today, if not cooler.
Windy conditions will actually help the NYC area from dipping into the 20’s and low 30’s tomorrow night, but we’ll still dip down into the upper 30’s to near 40. Elsewhere, we could see near/below freezing temps pop up and scattered frost.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Thursday will be the coolest day (relatively cold) of the week, with a stiff NW wind, sunny skies, and highs only 45-50 for the NYC area. Depending on the wind profile overnight Thursday, we could see mid 30’s if things calm down. Skies will be clear enough to allow radiational cooling, but we have to wait on the wind to see if it goes light or calm. Thursday night will be the best chance of this particular stretch to see some areas seeing an early frost/freeze, especially on Long Island with lows possibly going into the upper 20’s to low 30’s in spots.
On Friday, we’ll modify slightly with the approach of yet another system reinforcing cooler air. We should start off sunny, then increasing clouds late; highs in the mid to upper 50’s. We could see some showers Friday night, then a few lingering showers possible into late morning Saturday. We’ll have near 60 temps Saturday, but then they may drop throughout the day depending on the timing of that cold front. For Sunday, we go back to the basement, with sunny skies, a stiff breeze possible, and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s as of this moment.
COASTAL STORM CHANCE INCREASES
In the long range, the potential for our first coastal storm of the season increases. Before I start going into the forensics of it all, there are NO current threats and nothing in the immediate, short-range forecast.
However, with stubborn moisture hanging around the Southwest and Gulf, continuously sliding east and into the Southeast part of the lower 48; where it could hook up with one of many reinforcing shots of cooler air sliding into the Northeast. If so, the potential is there for a Nor’easter or Nor’easter-like system that could head up the coast, off the coast, or the I95 corridor.
Remember, a coastal storm doesn’t automatically equal snow, especially this time of year. So when I use the word Nor’easter, it doesn’t mean I’m calling for snow. Usually, October Nor’easters/coastal storms bring very heavy rain, windy conditions, and rumbles of thunder. That being said, with these types of systems, this time of year, any hypothetical departing system, could give us some wet flakes mixed with rain as cold air is pulled down and stubborn moisture remains.
If it plays out, it all ties in to the autumn outlook I gave in mid to late September; where I called for the potential of an active autumn Nor’easter season, early to average frost, and early first flakes. As of now, the early frost potential is on the table. Early flakes and coastal systems remain to be seen, but the potential is there.