NYC EARLY FIRST FROST LIKELY
Good morning everyone. We had some early morning rain today in the New York City area and clouds will be stubborn to leave for a few hours. Meanwhile, the clouds and precip represent a reinforcing shot of cool to relatively cold air, giving NYC the chance for it’s first frost of the season.
Lingering clouds and a few widely scattered light showers and drizzle will give way to partial clearing as the day wears on. We’re going up to the low to mid 60’s today after some of the clouds get out of the way, but a gusty west wind will help drop those temps as cooler air heads in. Tomorrow will be sunny and windy, but the sun won’t help much as it’ll feel like early December or late February depending on your perspective. Look for highs in the mid to upper 40’s and that’s it.
Winds will subside somewhat overnight tomorrow; how much they subside and when will be the deciding factor if New York City sees it’s first frost for Monday morning. As of now it looks as if that’ll happen with lows in the low to mid 30’s. It won’t be a heavy, widespread frost, but it’ll a first frost nonetheless and approx. 3-4 weeks early on average. Parts of Long Island have seen their first frost already and they were slightly earlier than average, but 3-4 weeks early for NYC is rather impressive.
After the sun melts the frost, it’ll be unseasonably cool but comfortable as we go for upper 40’s to low 50’s on Monday. Tuesday is looking a little bit better as head into the upper 50’s, but a reinforcing shot of cooler air drives us back down into the low to mid 50’s for the rest of the week.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
In the long range, I still don’t see the pieces coming together for a late week coastal storm. However, the energy profile is still there and we could have an opportunity from late weekend to just before Halloween. We’ll be watching closely to see if those ingredients come together.
In the meantime, your Halloween Hail-Mary forecast from a couple of weeks ago all hangs on that potential energy just before the big day. Timing will be key to see if I got that breezy, cool, and dry forecast correct.