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NYC FINAL CALL JANUARY WINTER STORM
Good morning everyone. As promised I said I’d be here for New York City to make adjustments as needed in terms of making a final call for the area. I think this is an important lesson for some as to why you don’t call for a foot on snow in NYC 10 days prior to an event. Yesterday, I discussed how our short range NAM model drifted towards the GFS model and GFS drifted slight towards the NAM. This was a sign that things still weren’t written in stone and that’s obvious this morning.
EASTERN SATELLITE
Before we start, it’s very important to remember that we STILL start out with some snow and we STILL have a very major icing problem when everything wraps up; so regardless of anyone’s disappointment in low snow totals, precaution must be taken as certain aspects of this system are not a dud locally.
REGIONAL RADAR
Clouds are already on the increase this morning, and we should see some snow beginning in the area between 4-7pm. If it starts before sunset, we’ll have issues with sticking initially aside from colder surfaces (cars, grass, trees). If it starts towards 7pm, it should start sticking everywhere that is untreated with salt.
Amounts slightly lowered for the NYC area/elsewhere
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the track of our system and a westerly approach before low pressure slips just south or over the area, is not friendly towards a big hit. Even with a slightly colder solution, I was only calling for 2-4″ for the NYC area because I didn’t see what I liked in terms of warm air pushing into the mid-layers of the atmosphere.
I think between midnight tonight and 3am, we begin a changeover to mixed precip, then rain in the NYC area and an even faster changeover for the south shore/east end of Long Island and even the south shores of NYC (Far Rockaway, Breezy Pt, Coney Island, New Dorp/Great Kills Staten Island etc).
With amounts lowered, expect 0-1″ in areas that change over quickly, then 1-3″ for most of the City away from south facing shores. As you go north, a changeover will still occur, but not before a decent hit of snow. Expect 3-6″ in a narrow band across central NW NJ, into upstate NY, and 10-20 miles away from the coast in CT. Then, further north, look for your 6-12″+ amounts, with those lower numbers coming in the further south you go, and possibly the 12″+ well north and well west.
Regardless what happens, this is still a very dangerous system. After a round of rain and possible thunderstorms in the NYC area, we will revert back to freezing rain and/or sleet just before things end. Temps will plummet from the mid 30’s and into the teens by early evening. This will cause flash-freezing and everything is going to become treacherous.
With things turning brittle and frozen, we could have downed trees/branches as winds gust to near 35mph late. Downed trees = possible power outages as well, so be prepared considering the brutal cold we’re about to experience. Coastal flooding at high tide Sunday morning will also be an issue for those who see some flooding during Nor’easters.
By Monday morning, you’ll be waking up to everything frozen and temps in the 5-10 degree realm. That’s a tremendous drop in 12 hours. Expect mid-teens as highs before we slowly modify on Tuesday but still below normal.
So everyone, don’t be surprised tonight with the brief hit of snow even though amounts have been downgraded slightly. Don’t be surprised about rumbles of thunder late overnight and tomorrow morning; which I discussed on Angry Ben’s Angry Weather on Facebook yesterday if you follow…and certainly don’t be surprised when things flash freeze and things become treacherous late Sunday.
We’ll be watching everything very closely as this still remains tricky and there will be a few nuances in the final outcome as far as local areas that see a touch more or a touch less.
Be Safe!!
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.