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NYC HOT LONG RANGE POSSIBLY JUST HOT AIR
Good morning everyone and Happy Easter to those who celebrate. We have a so-so day unfolding here, but it could also be a lot worse. Typical NYC spring in April is the best way to describe today. We remain looking cloudy and showery at times through the week, but Tuesday remains looking like a bright spot in the patch. Meanwhile, your long range is looking hot to start May according to models, but I’ll explain why we have to be skeptical.
EASTERN SATELLITE
As that upper level low continues to spin and meander about, we’ll have more clouds than sun. Look for a chance of some scattered showers this morning, especially for Long Island, then we’ll get into a few breaks of sun. That sun could touch off a scattered shower or two, but at least it’s not a washout today for the holidays. Plus, with some extra peeks of sun, 65-70 degree temps will be on the menu today.
REGIONAL RADAR
For tomorrow, we keep clouds and showers in the area as a small wave of energy forms along the old front as everything begins to finally depart. A northerly flow from the backside of this small wave will make things feel cool, but we could still squeeze out mid to upper 60’s tomorrow.
Tuesday is looking like the best day of the week, where we’ll see a window of sunshine and relatively mild temps. Expect more sun than clouds, especially mid morning to mid afternoon, highs 70-75. Things will be slightly cooler at the coast as we have winds off of the cooler water.
Tuesday night begins a series of weak systems that’ll trek across the area, keeping clouds and the chance of showers on and off throughout the rest of the week. Again, no washouts, but the sun will be hard to find and we’ll have to take it where we can get it. We’ll have the chance of a few showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, then maybe a break on Thursday with a few peaks of sun (maybe).
Then, another piece-meal system rolls in Thursday night through Saturday morning, bringing clouds and scattered showers with it. All this time, we could get a few peeks of sun here and there. We also remain seasonable throughout the stretch with low 60’s to upper 60’s depending on the sunshine factor.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
In the long range, some of the models are trying to give us a hot start to May in between all of these weak systems; with the GFS predicting mid 90’s in the Mid-Atlantic south of Washington D.C. Can it happen? It’s happened, but it’s a stretch and would need the perfect conditions to pull it off. It’s also the time of year where models have a hard time handling the warm air and maritime push-back; similar to how some in March predict a snowstorm 2 weeks ahead into April.
I’ve stated this and I stand by my words. We have the potential for a very nice May as we’ve put down a very good foundation for it. Warm air continues to build nicely in the Midwest and Southeast, which will eventually mean good things for us. However, the depiction this morning by models may be overdone and everything is system-dependent, especially this time of year.
So far to start May, it looks like a warmer version of what we’re getting now, maybe a bit more relaxed; with weak systems out and about, and days of sunshine mixed in. During our time between systems, we could see an 80+ degree day pop here and there, but lets pump the brakes when it comes to 90 talk.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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