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NYC INITIAL SNOW MAP POSTED CONFIDENCE MEH
Good morning everyone. We have a sunny, seasonably cold, and overall pleasant day today
After a sunny start today, clouds will begin to creep in between late afternoon and evening; highs in the mid to upper 30’s with light NW winds. Overnight, we’ll have the slight chance of light snow as a weak system brushes us from the south. The “larger” amounts will be confined to southern NJ, but if the snow does make it this way, we could see a dusting or so after midnight/before sunrise tomorrow.
Monday Night and Tuesday’s Snow/Sleet Map
Tomorrow, we remain mostly cloudy as we hang out between our departing weak system and the larger one heading our way; highs in the mid to upper 30’s.
The key to this whole thing will be timing, which is why confidence for the above map is mediocre at best. The earlier we start late Monday night, the better the shot we have at seeing these accumulations. If precip holds off till Tuesday morning, then we will be on the lower spectrum of things, possibly much lower.
As of now, expect the chance of snow some time between overnight Monday and before sunrise Tuesday. Any snow that does fall will easily stick with temps in the mid to upper 20’s. Snow will mix with sleet by mid to late morning Tuesday, then sleet will mix with rain by early afternoon. What happens prior to the mix with rain will decide how much we wound up with, because after that, it’s all essentially over.
Temps rise into the upper 30’s Tuesday with more and more rain mixing in before becoming all rain by late afternoon; washing everything away. Then, we’ll have more rain overnight Tuesday before things clear out on Wednesday with mid 40’s.
As far as the snow and sleet map above, I think it’s on the generous side and the only way I see it going, if it changes, is down, not up. I see a lot of warm air creeping in fast in the mid-layers, which is why timing of the onset of precip will be key to achieving these lofty goals.
REGIONAL RADAR
For Thursday, slightly above normal temps and sunny skies stick around, then rain and upper 40’s return for Friday and Saturday. System path continues to be a challenge this winter and there are no, all-out, all-snow systems in the intermediate range.
This brings us very close to March with nothing in sight. We all know what happened last March, but if our pattern remains the same, it’s going to be very hard to get something going as things have to become more perfect than now to pull off a March snowstorm.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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