NYC INTERIM LONG RANGE
NYC INTERIM LONG RANGE
NYC Interim Long Range – Good afternoon everyone and welcome to an updated synopsis on our long range outlook. First off, I’ll give a brief update on the immediate forecast. So far, everything seems to be on schedule as far as our expected cold weather and a system heading our way for late Sunday into Monday. Tomorrow is looking drier a touch sunnier than originally expected. Any lake effect snows will find it hard to make their way down our way due to a slight shift in the winds, which will wring the moisture out of the atmosphere well before anything gets close. Expect windy conditions tomorrow, with highs in the mid 40’s, lows in the upper 20’s. Friday will be windy again, clouds and sun, with a slight chance of a few flurries, highs in the upper 30’s, lows in the upper 20’s. Don’t be surprised if wind chill advisories/statements go up Thursday night and Friday, for windchills possibly reaching down into the upper teens. On Saturday, clouds clear out, but it’ll be unseasonably cold, with highs in the mid 30’s and lows in the mid 20’s.
On Sunday, another system will enter the picture, with increasing clouds and highs in the upper 30’s. Expect this system to take a very similar path as yesterday’s, but there will be more cold air to work with, initially. The threat of some scattered light snow showers will increase as we get into the evening on Sunday. Then, as the radar fills in and the system gets closer, we will have a mix of rain and snow, possibly more on the snow side than rain in times of heavier precip, and a few sleet pellets mixed in as well. Little to no accumulation is expected, but the morning rush on Monday could be a mess as a steady rain falls and we could see some ponding and minor flooding on roadways in poor drainage areas, highs will be near 45.
NYC Interim Long Range – After everything passes on Monday, unseasonably cold air returns and the active pattern continues. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 30’s to near 40, upper 30’s Wednesday, and lows in the mid to upper 20’s both nights. I know we have some fans on here who love their snow, but it is still extremely early in the season and the rain we are getting is vital with the drought we had during the summer and early fall. That being said, we definitely have the cold air available if the pattern of storm tracks change up a bit.
NYC Interim Long Range – Models are really having a rough time configuring the next two weeks. The GFS is flip-flopping on the idea of sending a few systems our way and developing them off of southern NJ, or going with a continuation of systems heading into the Great Lakes, keeping us in the warm sector aside from initial onset of precip and departure. My spidey sense tells me that in the past, a lot of these solutions end up being the close to the original before getting wacky. So I am keeping and eye on two possible systems that may end up being close calls as far as frozen precip in the NYC area: one for December 15th +/- 1 day, and one for December 23 +/- 2 to 3 days. Stay tuned for more as we get closer.
Either way, the theme of the next three weeks is – colder and a continuation of consistent activity.
NYC Interim Long Range – Northeast and local radar is very quiet. Expect an increase in activity as far as lake effect snow for the Great Lakes area, but quiet and dry here for the next couple of days.
Of course ANGRY BEN’S partner JOESTRADAMUS HAS HIS VIEW ON THE LONG RANGE IN HIS LATEST POST!
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