NYC Late Tropical Activity Could Delay Holiday Cold Push
Good morning everyone. We continue to watch our smorgasbord pattern here with wide-ranging temps. A good example of the unpredictability in regards to our pattern, is some late tropical activity in the lower Caribbean that could temporarily throw the jet stream off in terms of our gradually declining temps.
An area of disturbed weather has been lingering down here, and could get picked up by a wave of low pressure expected to move along the Gulf, combined with a deeper-digging front headed towards the East Coast. This could bring the entire area up out of the Caribbean and well offshore where it is no threat to the US Coast. However, it could be enough to knock the jet stream off a bit, and allow a ridge to form offshore just before Thanksgiving. If this happens, most of Thanksgiving weekend would actually wind up being mild and above-average temp-wise, with cooler/colder temps moving in that Sunday or Monday.
While this is not the scenario we originally pictured, it is why we said the timing of cold air and the margin of error, was 2-4 days on it. That would put us closer to the 3 or 4 day mark on that margin of error from this far out. We’ll keep a close eye on it all, and here is your local forecast that includes an unseasonably chilly Sunday.
SATELLITE
Clouds linger today with some scattered light rain here and there. We could see some partial clearing late, but you can write this one off as a loss pretty much. Highs today in the low 50’s.
The sun returns tomorrow with seasonable temps and highs in the low to mid 50’s. Overnight, the unseasonable cold air moves in. Expect lows in the NYC in the near 30/low 30 range, with widespread upper 20’s away from the City.
WEATHER RADAR
Sunday will be the chilliest day of the bunch, with widespread mid 40’s throughout the area. Lows will dip again into the low 30 range, with more upper 20’s away from the City.
We modify fairly quickly on Monday and Tuesday, with sunshine and dry conditions. Expect near 50/low 50 temps for Monday, then 50-55 for Tuesday and seasonable.
Stay tuned for the latest, and we will watch our Thanksgiving forecast closely.
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