NYC Tropical Activity Void Re-Shuffles Cold Air Card Deck

NYC Tropical Activity Void Re-Shuffles Cold Air Card Deck

Good morning everyone. We continue to watch 2 pushes of cold air and the timing of it all. The first one is somewhat easy in terms of timing, we’re just trying to come to a conclusion as far as intensity. The second batch of cold air continues to look very vigorous, but timing hinges on several factors.

The most important factor was whether or not we saw any tropical activity coming up from the lower Caribbean. Had we got something going by today or the next day or two, it would’ve been just enough to delay the cold air for Thanksgiving Weekend (or have it arrive at the very end). However, the prospects of tropical activity is fading, and will either not happen at all, or too late to make a difference on this batch of cold air.

This means that a very cold Thanksgiving Weekend is back on the table and part of the discussion. The margin of error on it’s arrival, was initially 2-4 days when we first started discussing it. Looking at the tropics, it looked as if it would arrive on the end of that 2-4 day range, possibly day 3 or 4. Now with the lack of anything meaningful in the tropics, we are looking at a 1-2 day margin of error, and we could see cold air arrive by Thanksgiving Day itself.

We could also see it arrive in the form of an intense Great Lakes storm and vigorous trailing front. If this is the case, areas of the Northeast and Ohio Valley could see some snow during our Holiday weekend.

SATELLITE

storm free

For today, we are quiet and seasonable until a quick hit of cold air moves in overnight tonight and tomorrow. We’ll have highs today in the low to mid 50’s, then dropping to the 30-35 realm overnight. Some areas away from the City could see some 20’s.

Tomorrow we go unseasonably chilly, with sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Lows overnight will dip again to the 30-35 range, and some 20’s away from the City.

WEATHER RADAR

On Monday we modify back into the low 50’s, then mid 50’s and sunshine through Thursday. Our next system arrives on or near Friday, with clouds moving in the chance of some rain. Highs Friday may reach near 60, then we will watch the timing of our next drop in temps either Saturday or Sunday.

storm free

After next weekend, we will briefly modify and go milder again, but then we begin to watch a bigger push of even colder air some time between November 22nd and the 24th. As of now, Thanksgiving Day is up in the air as far as precipitation AND temperatures.

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