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NYC Late Week Forecast Becoming Complicated
Good morning everyone. We’ll be watching the radar today to see if a narrow band of heavy snow squalls is able to reach down to NYC and parts of Long Island this afternoon. Otherwise, we have a fairly quiet weekend and week ahead till late week, where things may get dicey.
SATELLITE
The radar watch will be on today as an area of energy representing a reinforcing shot of cold air moves across upstate NY. The first wave of snow showers is expected to break up before it reaches the coast. However, a narrow and stronger line will move across interior sections, possibly reaching down to NYC/Long Island. We’ll see if it holds together, comes across in bits and pieces, or simply doesn’t reach down here.
Either way, we have AM sun, PM clouds, windy conditions, and highs in the low 40’s. Winds will be strongest as that energy passes by (regardless of snow or not), and winds may gust in the 45-50mph range, especially if that squall does make it down.
WEATHER RADAR
Tomorrow is sunny, cold, and quiet, with highs in the mid to upper 30’s. We’ll keep that going, but modify the temps fairly quickly on Monday as we reach the low 50’s.
Low to mid 50’s reign on Tuesday, but clouds will move in ahead of our next system, and we’ll see some afternoon rain. Wednesday is looking fairly cloudy, but mild air sticks around one more day with highs near 60.
This is where things get complicated late week. We’ve talked about “rhyming” systems where a series of 3 systems could get us to March with little to no snow. The first one this past week had its warm front go way up and beyond our area. Our early week system sees the warm front go just to our north, and the next one may not make it through or drape over the area. These systems rhyme in “design”, but slowly degrade south in path with each pass.
If the warm front late week is able to just make it past, we could see a period of snow changing to rain. If it drapes over the area, look for a period of snow changing to a mix. If the warm front never makes it and slides to our south, look for possibly all snow out of this. While not a tremendously powerful looking system, an all snow event could give us a healthy 4-8″ in our area. Right now I’m not going in any direction with this system and just laying out the scenarios. We don’t do “systems after systems after systems” here since the flow behind Tues/Wed’s system will dictate how this goes.
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