NYC LIGHT RAIN SNOW POSSIBLE TOMORROW BIGGER RAIN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT
Good morning everyone. We have one more cold and dry day here in the New York City area before things get a little questionable tomorrow and onward. Meanwhile, I still believe our system for late Friday and Saturday is slow to move out, raising questions about how nice Sunday will really be.
Upper 30’s to near 40 remain on the menu today, as well as that wind chill I spoke about yesterday. The wind won’t be blowing hard, but it’ll be moving enough and out of the NNW to whisk some of that bodily heat away from exposed skin. At least we get one more day of sunshine till clouds move in for a few days.
Overnight tonight, clouds will begin to move in ahead of that moisture associated with warmer air heading our way. This will create a compact area of over-running precip which could touch off some light rain and snow showers. It looks as if timing of the precip and timing of the warm air is moving slightly faster than previously thought.
This will give us an earlier start to any potential precip, giving us a slight chance of light wet snow/flurries in the morning tomorrow, then any precip (if any) should turn to light rain or light mix as the day goes on. If we get an early enough start, we could see a light dusting on colder surfaces; but other than that; no accumulation or issues are expected.
Areas north and west of the City, and maybe even parts of the north shore of Long Island, have a better chance of that dusting. As with any over-running situation, we’ll be watching it closely as it doesn’t always work out the way you planned it.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Clouds stick around for Friday with a few peeks of sun early. Highs should be in the mid to upper 40’s, but an east wind will keep things feeling raw when the sun isn’t shining. We’ll have the slight chance of rain late afternoon, but the bulk of the precip heads in Friday night.
Rain continues into Saturday and I think the action won’t be as heavy as once thought. With our primary low hanging back, it’ll send spokes of energy our way instead of one giant blob. So instead of the 1-2″ amounts with locally higher amounts, I think we get about 1″ in most spots with maybe some higher amounts depending on how the radar sets up. Highs Saturday in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.
All in all, I remain skeptical on how fast things clear out. Yesterday, I said don’t rule out a flurry or sprinkle Sunday night, and this is because I think the low has a problem getting out. For now, I say clouds stick around for Sunday for a mostly cloudy day, with a chance of sprinkles possible Sunday, then maybe a wet flurry/sprinkle Sunday night. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 40’s.
For my super long range Christmas Day forecast, a system just before Christmas is possible. On Nov 30th , working out the timing of the way systems were moving across the Country, I formulated that we have a 70% of a sunny, windy, cold, and dry Christmas Day.
If everything works out and that system is gone the day before or during Christmas Eve, the forecast will hold true.