NYC LONG RANGE SUMMER FORECAST
NYC LONG RANGE SUMMER FORECAST
NYC LONG RANGE SUMMER FORECAST – Good evening everyone! After a nice break in NYC, it’s time to get back to work and there’s a lot of work to be done. After a few comfortable days ahead, we catapult back into a typical NYC summery pattern to close out the week.
For now, a upper air area of low pressure in the Great Lakes is spinning a cool breeze into the region, along with showers and storms popping up with the help of the heating of the day. Most of this energy is and will continue to go to our north, so most of the action will be well upstate. However, as this energy swings by tomorrow, we could see the slight chance of a few isolated storms pop up. Anyone who sees one of these small, popcorn type storms, could see brief torrential rain as well as small hail; highs tomorrow near 80.
On Wednesday, we’ll have another comfortable day, with sunny skies, low humidity, and highs again near 80. We turn up the thermostat a bit on Thursday, with highs in the mid 80’s, but it will remain comfortable out as humidity creeps up compared to Wednesday, but still remains rather low. For Thursday night, a warm front will transit the area, giving us a typical summer night. We could see a few showers late at night as this transition takes place, and lows will only make it down to a humid 70-75 overnight.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look like your textbook, early summer pattern here in the NYC area. It’ll be very warm and humid, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s, near 90 in some of the typically warmer areas, and slightly cooler at the coast. With waves of energy riding over the ridge and to the north of us, we could see a thunderstorm at any time during the afternoon for each day.
In the long range, we’ll wait and see if hot air holds on for one more day on Monday. Otherwise, we could see a break in the humidity Monday after a stronger round of storms Sunday evening; or if there is a delay, the front may go out with a more quiet transition early to mid Monday. In the meantime, very warm to hot and humid air will build back into the Midwest, Southeast, and Ohio valley. A reinforcing back-door cold will try and keep things more seasonable to slightly below normal here, but the heat will make a strong case and try to drift east towards us.
As of now, the 2nd part of the 1st week of July is looking seasonable, but we could enter the 2nd week and mid-July on an extended hot and humid note; possibly a true heat-wave (not the media-induced watered down version). Also, this pattern is holding strong so far, which means for the most part a period of heat and humidity, then a period a seasonable temps and low humidity. We shall see how long this holds.
Stay tuned and I will keep a close eye on the prospect of a dog-days of summer type period in the upcoming 2 weeks.
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