NYC Mild Rainy Start To Week Then Cold
Good morning everyone. After a quiet and half-cold weekend, we have a quick taste of mild air before much colder air returns. All bets are off in the long range as a semi-zonal flow turns more active and dynamic, leaving us with questions forging ahead into mid/late December.
SATELLITE
For today, the sun won’t do much as the core of this cold air shot is over us. Luckily, it doesn’t last and things modify tomorrow. Expect mid to upper 30’s today and dry conditions.
Tomorrow, AM sun will give way to sun and clouds in the afternoon, then lowering and thickening clouds ahead of our next system. We remain on the chilly side tomorrow, but it’s a seasonal chill and nothing extreme as we go for mid 40’s.
REGIONAL RADAR
On Monday and Tuesday, a large system drifts our way. We’ll be in the warm-sector on this one with low pressure going west and north of us. Look for on and off rain/showers on Monday, with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder. Highs Monday in the mid 50’s.
Tuesday we’ll be dealing with the cold front. Weather conditions should be the same, with on and off showers, a few rumbles of thunder, and rain may be briefly heavy in spots. Tuesday we go for 60, but it all hangs on how much precipitation is out there. Strong winds will also be ahead of this cold front, and south facing shores could see gusty conditions and cooler temps compared to the rest of the area.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Overnight Tuesday, the NWS is calling for rain changing to snow. Some models out there are depicting that our cold front has a hard time clearing through completely, and a weak wave/kink develops as cold air moves in.
I’m actually going to hold off on this for now and I think it sounds worse than it is unless I see any major changes. For the moment, I’m going to agree that temps drop like a rock as we plunge from near 60 to low to mid 30’s overnight Tuesday. Any leftover moisture could produce SOME flurries, which may last into early morning Wednesday, but that’s the extent of it for now.
Also, from the ground being so warm/wet and precipitation on the light side, don’t expect any accumulation. It would have to fall hard and fast to produce anything of value.
Either way, Wednesday is unseasonably cold as we barley recover out of the low 30’s from Tuesday night; and Thursday may only be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. We may modify a bit on Friday, but we’d still be below average if we went to mid to upper 30’s.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
In the long range, we’ll be watching a series of systems coming from all directions, including the prospect for a few coastal/near-coastal systems. Timing, path, and the availability of cold air will all be factors as to what we see out of each one. As of now, there’s no possible way we can predict if any one of these may work out perfectly for snow; but with an active period brewing, all it takes is one.
Stay tuned and we will watch it all.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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