NYC NOREASTER MODELS TREND COLDER COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY – Good morning everyone. Another beautiful day is in store for us here as we await to see what our upcoming Nor’easter does in terms of wind, track, timing, and how much cold air can sneak in.

So far so good for today, with bright sunshine, a southwest breeze, and highs near 60 in most areas. However, look for low to mid 50’s in areas in proximity to the south face shores. Tonight, we begin to cloud up, but rain will hold off until later tomorrow; the first adjustment we have to make in the forecast.

Our frontal system is running a few hours late, which chances the dynamic slightly, especially for areas upstate. Low pressure will be late to get going, but this will allow colder air to infiltrate a little further, possibly giving us a colder solution and more snow for upstate with this system.

If you refer back to my forecast several days ago, you’ll see that I discussed the possibility of flakes in the air in the NYC area, especially as the system departs. I’ve left it on the table from then onward and continue to do so. This may not be an all rain event, but in the same respect, we have bigger fish to fry at this moment for New York City and Long Island due to the coastal impact this storm may have.

As far as upstate and central New England is concerned, it’s possible that they could get completely hammered snow-wise, but we have to wait to see how this plays out exactly, how long it lasts, and how much cold air is able to make it in initially rather than later.

Clouds will continue to increase tomorrow and rain should move in by late afternoon/early evening as opposed to the early afternoon arrival we originally discussed. Because of the rain’s late arrival, look for mid to upper 50’s as highs, but it could have a damp feel as the day wears on. Rain will continue tomorrow night, and a northeast wind will begin to increase in intensity.

Depending on the final track and wind direction, rain, heavy at times, will continue on Friday. With models growing colder, we could see a mix of rain and snow at times, especially during our periods of heaviest precip. This will help cool down the atmosphere enough where we may see some wet snow mixed in. Since temps will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s, don’t expect any accumulation. Same thing goes for Friday night and into Saturday – rain, possibly heavy at times, windy, and some flakes mixed in. We could also end as a period of wet snow as the low pulls away, something I refuse to take off of the table until we see how much cold air this thing is able to pull down.

For coastal areas, astronomical high tides in conjunction with this slow moving Nor’easter, will create some issues. If you live in an area that typically gets water in the streets or in your basement during a Nor’Easter, than this one will be no different and you must take action to protect your property. Low lying sections within areas such as Bayville, Broad Channel, Far Rockaway, Freeport, Baldwin, Long Beach, Wantagh, Seaford, Massapequa, Lindenhurst, and other areas point eastward need to take notice in this storm.

*This is not a Sandy or Irene situation, but again, if you typically get water during a good Nor’easter, then don’t ignore this storm.

Stay tuned tomorrow as we fine-tune how much cold air will actually be able to wrap itself in, and who will see what as far as snow amounts and mixed precip.


storm free



storm free



storm free


storm free







Weather App

storm free

Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.

It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.

Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.

Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!