MODEL FLUCTUATIONS COMPLICATE NYC NOREASTER FORECAST
MODEL FLUCTUATIONS COMPLICATE NYC NOREASTER FORECAST
MODEL FLUCTUATIONS COMPLICATE NYC NOREASTER FORECAST – Good afternoon everyone. As the day goes on and we get closer to our Nor’easter scheduled for late Thursday into Friday night, the model runs have become more bizarre; specifically the afternoon runs.
As of this very moment, my forecast holds, with rain coming in by tomorrow evening. Then steadier, heavier rain and increasing wind picking up by late tomorrow night. Rain, heavy at times, will continue into Friday as the winds pick up even more. For this reason, we are under a High Wind Watch, which will most likely turn into a High Wind Warning. Expect 25-35 mph sustained winds, and gusts to 50-60+mph, especially at the coast Friday into Friday night.
Again, this will cause issues away from the coast with downed trees possible due to the soft, over-saturated soil. At the coast, astronomical high tides and enhancement from our Nor’easter, will cause moderate coastal flooding in flood prone areas. If you do not see water in your streets or basement during bad Nor’Easters, you do not have to worry about this one. If your area does typically see water during these types of situations, the time to act is now to use common sense and protect property. That means having a place to park your car away from flood prone areas, and making sure your sump pumps work.
To complicate things, Winter Storm Watches have crept down a bit to include parts of the Catskills of PA and update NY. This follows the trend of colder air creeping in with the help of a stronger system, a prolonged northerly flow, and a prolonged departure. It’s too early to tell, but areas N&W of New York City may get walloped by this system. Depending on the final structure, this could be anywhere from the Finger Lakes region across to Albany and into central New England, or possibly shifting further southeast into northeast PA, northwest NJ, and Southeastern New York. Blizzard warnings may pop up in the areas that are going to get hit the worst in terms of wind and blinding snow.
For the NYC metro area, morning models vs. afternoon models for the past 48 hrs have been against each other as far as a warmer vs. colder solution; with the morning models trending warmer, and the afternoon trending colder. While the morning models are generally more accurate, we must pay attention to this flip flop as it’s not going away.
Tomorrow morning’s run will be the most important, but as of now I’m sticking with a rain and snow mix Friday night, especially when areas of higher convection transit the NYC/Long Island region; then possibly ending as all wet flakes in the air as the low departs. For us, the focus continues on the wind effects and what will happen at the coast, everything else is secondary at this moment.
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