NYC NOREASTER THREAT GROWS – Good afternoon everyone. After a beautiful day today, we shift eyes towards the growing threat of a Nor’easter late Sunday night into late Tuesday. We do have some weather in between, but this forecast is to primarily focus on the big story, our first Nor’easter in quite some time.


On Sunday, an upper level low pressure system will move out from Texas and into the Tennessee Valley area. At this point, we’re expecting an energy transfer to the North Carolina coast. A surface low will develop and intensify rapidly as it heads North/Northeast. What the solutions are telling us is two fold – 1. The possibility of one slow moving system or 2. A double barrel low pressure , where one wave moves by on Monday night, leaving energy behind to form another low, and that one essentially heads over the same area. Either way, this creates the possibility on a extended period of heavy precipitation and high winds, along with minor to moderate coastal flooding due to wind and tidal influences.

For the time being, the models hold onto a warmer solution for the immediate south shore, but cold air has been slowly working it’s way on south and into the Hudson Valley on each run. Right now we have to see if that trend continues, or it stops. This is a complicated situation and final track and intensity will play a final role on how much cold air is able to sneak in. As of now, we’re looking for a prolonged period of heavy rain and wind, starting by late Sunday morning, highs in the mid 40’s. Rain will continue Sunday night and into Monday, with highs again in the mid 40’s. Monday night, heavy rain will continue and into Tuesday morning at least. Tuesday as of now, we’re looking at morning rain and highs in the low 50’s.

Whether the rain continues into Wednesday will depend on whether we see a single, slow moving system, or a double barrel low, which would extend the time frame and amount of precipitation. We also need to keep a close eye on whether cold air sneaks in further than currently expected, a distinct possibility albeit a small window of opportunity as of now.

You can check out my long range forecast on this link to see the discussion on the pattern change expected. On a quick note, Saturday looks to be a beautiful day, with highs 55-60, so go out an enjoy it before the weather turns.


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NYC NOREASTER THREAT GROWS – Satellite depicts our next weather maker moving in, as well as the ingredients coming together for a big storm late weekend and into Tuesday.

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Radar is quiet, but some showers will enter the area for tomorrow evening. Then we wait and watch for some big echoes come late Sunday.

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